Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 819

May 30, 202118 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2021, 11:43 PM CDT for 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2021, 11:43 PM CDT (04:43 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2021, 1:15 AM CDT
In force: 92 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 227

Counties Bailey County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 436 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -34 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1025 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

986 
ACUS11 KWNS 310444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310443 
TXZ000-310615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Rolling Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

Valid 310443Z - 310615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 227. Large hail remains a concern, particularly with more
discrete storms. A couple damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...An organized MCS has been developing across parts of
the Texas Rolling Plains over the past couple of hours,
characterized by linear mode across Hockley/Terry Counties, and
preceded by more discrete convection from Lubbock to Scurry
Counties. A recent uptick in storm intensity has been noted over the
past hour, with a discrete supercell noted over Garza County. MRMS
mosaic MESH radar data suggests over 2 inch diameter stones may be
occurring with this storm. Though boundary-layer stabilization or
convective overturning has reduced instability across much of
western Texas, 00Z AMA and MAF soundings showed up 8 C/km 700-500 mb
lapse rates present, supporting up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE as shown by
04Z mesoanalysis. As such, a severe hail threat may continue with
the more robust, discrete storms over the next couple of hours.
Otherwise, a damaging gust or two may occur with the more linear
structures.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33060292 33690302 34070293 34310230 34440121 34280043
            34030013 33580003 33160015 32920060 32870185 33060292

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 8:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 6 more	91 min
May 30, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill and 4 more	5 hr
May 30, 9:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby, Dawson and 20 more	83 min
May 31, 2:12 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Borden, Fisher, Haskell, Howard, Jones, Kent and 5 more	3 hr
May 31, 11:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Cochran, Crane, Crockett and 26 more	87 min
May 31, 12:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Andrews, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Ector and 21 more	9 hr
May 31, 2:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Coryell and 10 more	2 hr
May 31, 2:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Comanche, Coryell, Ellis, Erath and 13 more	4 hr
May 31, 3:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Ector and 21 more	91 min
May 31, 5:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Ellis, Falls, Freestone and 10 more	93 min
May 31, 5:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Pecos, Terrell	116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.