Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 826

May 31, 202116 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2021, 2:15 PM CDT for 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2021, 2:15 PM CDT (19:15 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2021, 4:15 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230May 31, 2:50 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 647 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

580 
ACUS11 KWNS 311915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311915 
TXZ000-312115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311915Z - 312115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Destabilization ahead of a convective line segment in
central Texas will support an increased damaging wind gust threat
this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Deeper convection with a small line segment west of
Stephenville has been observed over the last hour. Cloud-free areas
in central Texas has allowed MLCAPE to rise to around 1000 J/kg.
KDYX radar velocity data show an area of 40-50 kt flow within the
lowest 1.5 km. With continued surface heating ahead of this activity
and 35-40 kts of shear, damaging wind gust potential is likely to
increase this afternoon. Low-level shear near the boundary is also
sufficient for a brief QLCS tornado. This line segment will
generally tend to propagate east-southeastward where the airmass is
more unstable. This would likely take it south of the DFW metro.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32089964 32509935 32869877 32759800 32099687 31749657
            31369685 31189763 31209831 31429893 31869946 32089964

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 8:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 6 more	91 min
May 30, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill and 4 more	5 hr
May 30, 9:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby, Dawson and 20 more	83 min
May 30, 11:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd and 12 more	92 min
May 31, 2:12 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Borden, Fisher, Haskell, Howard, Jones, Kent and 5 more	3 hr
May 31, 11:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Cochran, Crane, Crockett and 26 more	87 min
May 31, 12:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Andrews, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Ector and 21 more	9 hr
May 31, 2:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Comanche, Coryell, Ellis, Erath and 13 more	4 hr
May 31, 3:29 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Ector and 21 more	91 min
May 31, 5:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Ellis, Falls, Freestone and 10 more	93 min
May 31, 5:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Pecos, Terrell	116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.