Mesoscale Discussion 805

Issued

May 29, 2021, 8:20 PM MDT (02:20 UTC)

Expired

May 29, 2021, 9:45 PM MDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 224

Counties Harding County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 165 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

767 
ACUS11 KWNS 300221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300220 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

Areas affected...Northeast NM...Western OK Panhandle...Northwest TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

Valid 300220Z - 300345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell in the western OK Panhandle will continue to
pose a threat of tornadoes and very large hail in the short term,
while the increasing convection in northeast NM will also continue
to pose a severe threat. The threat should gradually spread
southeastward with time tonight into the northwest TX Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...At 0215Z, an intense supercell is ongoing across
Cimarron County, Oklahoma. Despite gradual nocturnal cooling across
the region, this cell continues to be sustained by moderate
instability and increasing southeasterly low-level inflow, as noted
in recent OK Mesonet observations. As long as this cell can remain
surface based, it will continue to pose a threat of a tornado and
very large hail as it moves slowly southeastward. 

Further southwest, convection has gradually increased in coverage
and intensity across northeast NM. These storms will pose a threat
of hail and locally damaging wind, and a tornado cannot be ruled out
with any supercell than can move eastward into a region of somewhat
better low-level moisture and instability across far northeast NM. 

While increasing MLCINH may tend to limit the discrete surface-based
supercell risk with time, the increasing low-level jet may foster
gradual upscale growth, as outflows consolidate into northeast NM
and the northwest TX Panhandle. This would increase the risk of
locally damaging winds as the threat gradually spreads
southeastward.

..Dean.. 05/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35470435 35890461 36840395 37060314 37050245 36900189
            36630169 36280180 35970210 35580270 35470435

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.