Mesoscale Discussion 810

Issued

May 30, 2021, 11:08 AM MDT (17:08 UTC)

Expired

May 30, 2021, 12:45 PM MDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

Counties Costilla County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Taos County, NM, Union County, NM

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225May 30, 11:40 AM MDT

467 
ACUS11 KWNS 301708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301708 
COZ000-NMZ000-301845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 301708Z - 301845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
across the southern High Plains. Large hail and gusty winds will be
the primary threat, although a couple tornadoes will be possible
into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar trends continue to show
thunderstorms developing atop the higher terrain of south-central
New Mexico. These thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this
afternoon as they develop/evolve in a weakly capped, unstable
atmosphere (most-unstable CAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg).
Effective-layer shear on the the order of 30-40 knots will support a
mixed-mode of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of
producing large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows.

Large-scale ascent across the region will continue to increase this
afternoon with the approach of an upper trough. This increase, when
coupled with diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer, should allow
for additional thunderstorms to develop across southeast Colorado
and eastern New Mexico. Given the aforementioned background
environment, large-hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be the
primary threats. 

Kinematically, weak low-level flow should limit the overall tornado
potential, despite a favorable veering vertical wind profile. Later
this evening, the low-level jet should ramp up, enlarging the lower
levels of the hodograph. As such, the tornado potential across the
area should maximize later this afternoon and into the early
evening. However, upscale-transition of initial thunderstorm cells
will likely be simultaneously occurring. As such, the tornado threat
will likely maximize with any sustained cellular convection later
this afternoon and evening, although a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out before.

..Marsh/Goss.. 05/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32350593 37880572 37830316 32400318 32350593

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.