Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 806
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2021, 10:37 PM MDT for Baca County, Bent County, Prowers County, Colorado; Hamilton County, Morton County, Stanton County, Kansas. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2021, 10:37 PM MDT (04:37 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2021, 11:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Hamilton County, KS, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 278 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1446 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 28 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 45 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
929
ACUS11 KWNS 300437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300437
KSZ000-COZ000-300530-
Mesoscale Discussion 0806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021
Areas affected...Southeast CO...Southwest KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 300437Z - 300530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm cluster may move from southeast CO
into far southwest KS overnight, with a threat of isolated severe
wind gusts and hail.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across
southeast CO, within an environment characterized by rather strong
easterly low-level flow (noted in surface observations and the KPUX
VWP), moderate instability, and effective shear of 30-40 kt. There
is some potential for the ongoing storms to organize into a cluster
and move east-southeastward overnight. The strongest storms will
pose a threat of hail, with some increasing potential for isolated
severe wind gusts if a forward-propagating cluster can organize with
time.
The longevity and eastward progression of ongoing storms remain
somewhat uncertain due to increasing MLCINH downstream, but at least
an isolated hail/wind threat may move from southeast CO into far
southwest KS overnight in conjunction with ongoing storms or renewed
development along developing outflows. Watch issuance is possible if
sustained upscale growth appears imminent.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/30/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...PUB...
LAT...LON 38090367 38100246 38050173 37100149 37100262 37160323
37230363 37720356 38090367SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 11:08 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Costilla, Huerfano, Las Animas | 97 min |
| May 30, 11:41 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Costilla, Crowley, Custer, Huerfano and 3 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.