Mesoscale Discussion 815

Issued

May 30, 2021, 5:43 PM MDT (23:43 UTC)

Expired

May 30, 2021, 6:45 PM MDT

In force

62 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 227

Counties Chaves County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Torrance County, NM

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

404 
ACUS11 KWNS 302344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302343 
NMZ000-310045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...portions of central into southeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

Valid 302343Z - 310045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.

SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may linger across
portions of central, eastern, and southeastern New Mexico for at
least a couple more hours. Damaging gusts and large hail are the
main concerns. The best chance for large hail and perhaps a brief
tornado will be with the southernmost storms.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters as well as discrete and
semi-discrete supercells persist across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#227. A few of the stronger storms from Chaves to Lea Counties, NM
have a history of producing severe hail and a couple of tornadoes
over the past hour or so. These storms have access to the best
instability (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and are expected to have the
most robust severe threat across eastern NM through this evening.
Storms farther northwest have been more numerous in nature, with
gradual convective overturning of the environment noted via 23Z
mesoanalysis. Still, an instance or two of hail/wind may accompany
these storms over the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33020467 33810558 34540618 35020595 35160521 34970422
            34640354 34350324 33890316 33450318 33130351 33020467

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.