Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 808

May 30, 20216 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT for 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT (07:00 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2021, 3:00 AM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Castro County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 70 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -344 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 758 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

317 
ACUS11 KWNS 300700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300700 
TXZ000-NMZ000-300800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern NM into the TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 300700Z - 300800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues early this morning
across part of the Texas Panhandle within extended Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 224. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary
threat. Additional downstream watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A small, slow-moving cluster of storms has recently
moved eastward from NM into the western TX Panhandle. A measured
wind gust of 86 mph was recorded at a West TX Mesonet site in Oldham
County near the NM/TX state line with this convection. Recent radar
imagery from KFDX and KAMA show decreasing intensity of the
reflectivity core aloft. Still, a damaging wind risk remains
apparent with this activity in the short term as a 30-35 kt
low-level jet feeds into the inflow region of the cluster. The
airmass downstream appears only marginally supportive of
severe/intense storms, as MLCAPE decreases with eastward extent
across the TX Panhandle and MLCIN strengthens. Current expectations
are for the ongoing activity to weaken over the next couple of
hours, and additional downstream watch issuance to the south/east of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 is unlikely.

..Gleason/Grams.. 05/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35260337 35440312 35760280 35810219 35710170 35250151
            34670154 34340201 34370292 34940340 35260337

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 29, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dallam, Hartley, Oldham, Sherman	8 hr
May 29, 9:20 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Hartley, Sherman	85 min
May 29, 11:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Hartley, Moore, Oldham, Potter, Sherman	61 min
May 30, 3:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 20 more	113 min
May 30, 4:42 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Armstrong, Carson, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Donley, Gray and 10 more	7 hr
May 30, 5:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby and 16 more	83 min
May 30, 6:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Andrews, Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Castro, Childress and 30 more	7 hr
May 30, 6:04 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Moore and 3 more	86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.