Mesoscale Discussion 812

Issued

May 30, 2021, 3:52 PM CDT (20:52 UTC)

Expired

May 30, 2021, 5:45 PM CDT

In force

113 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

60%

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 226May 30, 4:35 PM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227May 30, 6:00 PM CDT

994 
ACUS11 KWNS 302053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302052 
TXZ000-OKZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302052Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon posing a risk of
large hail and gusty winds. Additional thunderstorms will move into
the area later this afternoon into the evening, posing an additional
threat of wind and hail.

DISCUSSION...A hybrid stationary front/outflow boundary currently
stretches from southeast Colorado, into the far western Oklahoma
Panhandle, across the far northern Texas Panhandle, and into
west/southwest Oklahoma this afternoon. To the north of this
boundary, rain-cooled air and increased cloud cover have left
temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. To the south of this boundary,
pockets of heating have occurred through breaks in the cloud cover
resulting in temperatures warming into the 70s F. 

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon have shown a slowly
increasing trend in the vertical development of the cumulus field
along this boundary. Recent imagery suggests more robust cumulus
development across far northwest Texas Panhandle and this area shows
the most promise of convective initiation in the near term.
Mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, effective-layer
shear 35-40 knots, and mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km would
support a large hail and gusty wind threat. A tornado or two may be
possible with any thunderstorm that interacts with the
aforementioned stationary front/outflow boundary.

Later this afternoon and evening, convection will move into this
region from the northwest as thunderstorms move along the
aforementioned boundary into northern Texas and western Oklahoma
Panhandles. Additional thunderstorms should approach the area from
the west out of eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging
thunderstorm winds will be the primary severe threat with this round
of storms, although a tornado or two will be possible with any
cellular convection or convection that interacts with the boundary.

A watch will likely be needed across parts of this area later this
afternoon into the evening, although some uncertainty in the timing
remains. The area will continued to be monitored through the
afternoon/evening.

..Marsh/Goss.. 05/30/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34430295 36970295 36920008 34440004 34430295

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.