Mesoscale Discussion 622

Issued

May 15, 2021, 1:57 PM MDT (19:57 UTC)

Expired

May 15, 2021, 4:00 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172May 15, 2:50 PM MDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174May 15, 4:05 PM MDT
• Tornado Watch 175May 15, 5:05 PM MDT

095 
ACUS11 KWNS 151957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151957 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far
Northwest TX Panhandle...Far Western OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 151957Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated, with an
attendant increase in the threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus has gradually deepen across the Front Range
over the past few hours, with several instances of lightning
observed over the last half hour. Expectation is for this deepening
trend to persist, with eventual convective initiation across much of
the region. The downstream air mass currently remains relatively
cool, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s
throughout much of the region. However, continued diurnal heating
and mixing will likely push temperatures into the mid to upper 70s
while simultaneously eroding the convective inhibition. This should
result in a modestly buoyant air mass with by steep low and
mid-level lapse rates. Additionally, low-level southeasterly flow
veering to westerly in the mid-levels will result in moderate
vertical shear.

Storms currently building over the high terrain are forecast to move
eastward into the then destabilized airmass, resulting in the
potential for a few supercells. Hail will be possible early in the
storm's lifecycle, with the threat transitioning to damaging wind
gusts over time and with eastward extent. Slightly better low-level
moisture is in place just east of the region in southwest KS and the
eastern TX/OK Panhandle. Some guidance indicates this moisture may
advect into southeast CO prior to the thunderstorms, potentially
resulting in some tornado potential. Given the anticipated storm
coverage, a watch will likely be needed this afternoon to cover the
impending severe threat.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39300535 40260482 40280352 39430257 38090215 35640228
            35170374 35310482 35630508 36250529 37550537 39300535

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.