Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 616
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT for Harmon County, Roger Mills County, Oklahoma; 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT (01:45 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 10:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 169
All 24 counties
Harmon County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 981 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -97 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1886 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 400 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 5.2
The text
As transmitted.
452
ACUS11 KWNS 150145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150145
OKZ000-TXZ000-150315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...
Valid 150145Z - 150315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
continues.
SUMMARY...A gradual decrease in the severe threat is expected with
time this evening, but sporadic strong wind gusts and hail remain
possible over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, a strong thunderstorm is ongoing northwest of
Lubbock, with an eastward-moving storm cluster noted further north
into portions of the central/eastern TX Panhandle. Convection
approaching the eastern portion of WW 169 is expected to gradually
weaken with time, as it moves into an environment characterized by
increasing SBCINH. However, isolated severe wind gusts will remain
possible for the next 1-2 hours as the storm cluster and related
cold pool move eastward. The storm on the tail end of the line
northwest of Lubbock will remain in a somewhat more favorable
environment (with weaker SBCINH) for the next hour or so, and may
remain capable of hail and strong wind gusts as it nears the
southern edge of WW 169.
Downstream watch issuance to the east of WW 169 is not currently
anticipated, given the expected weakening trend, though strong wind
gusts associated with dying convection/heatburst activity may spread
into the far eastern TX Panhandle and western OK later this evening.
..Dean.. 05/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34030290 34880186 35580137 36110132 36360095 36500009
35719971 34729975 33989988 33530166 33820268 34030290SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron | 2 hr |
| May 15, 3:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cimarron, Texas | 7 hr |
| May 15, 12:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Hidalgo, Willacy | 87 min |
| May 15, 2:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Culberson, Loving, Reeves, Ward, Winkler | 3 hr |
| May 15, 4:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 15 more | 7 hr |
| May 15, 5:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hale and 9 more | 94 min |
| May 15, 6:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Culberson and 18 more | 85 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.