Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 15, 2021, 3:06 PM MDT for Lea County, New Mexico; 21 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 3:06 PM MDT (21:06 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 10:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 22 counties
Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 3:44 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos, Terrell | 61 min |
| May 15, 4:24 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos, Terrell | 51 min |
| May 15, 5:06 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Andrews, Ector, Winkler | 39 min |
| May 15, 5:10 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos, Terrell | 50 min |
| May 15, 5:41 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Pecos, Terrell | 64 min |
| May 15, 5:44 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Andrews, Ector, Martin, Midland | 46 min |
| May 15, 6:11 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Gaines | 64 min |
| May 15, 6:14 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Lea | 61 min |
| May 15, 6:24 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Andrews, Borden, Dawson, Howard, Martin | 66 min |
| May 15, 6:28 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Brewster, Pecos, Terrell | 62 min |
| May 15, 6:33 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Terrell | 42 min |
| May 15, 7:12 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Brewster, Terrell | 63 min |
| May 15, 7:27 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Borden, Dawson | 48 min |
| May 15, 7:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Borden, Dawson | 31 min |
| May 15, 8:04 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | MAF | Gaines | 3 hr |
| May 15, 8:11 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Terrell | 34 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 28 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 254 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -312 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1150 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 162 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
638
WWUS20 KWNS 152103
SEL3
SPC WW 152103
NMZ000-TXZ000-160400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast New Mexico
West/Southwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
through late afternoon/early evening and move eastward across
southeast New Mexico/west Texas Transpecos. Isolated large hail will
be possible aside from severe-caliber wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast
of Hobbs NM to 40 miles west southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...GuyerSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:25 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt | 3 hr |
| May 15, 1:57 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Harding, Mora, San Miguel, Union | 2 hr |
| May 15, 2:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Curry, Harding, Quay, Roosevelt, Union | 7 hr |
| May 15, 4:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, Harding, Quay, Union | 94 min |
| May 15, 5:35 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lea | 85 min |
| May 14, 7:45 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 16 more | 90 min |
| May 15, 11:48 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Hidalgo, Willacy | 87 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.