Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 624
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 4:56 PM MDT for 4 counties in New Mexico; 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 4:56 PM MDT (22:56 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 6:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 172
Counties Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 390 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -372 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1465 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 107 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 167 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
913
ACUS11 KWNS 152257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152256
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-160030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...eastern New Mexico through western Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...
Valid 152256Z - 160030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and downburst winds remain possible
through early evening with storms spreading east through the High
Plains of eastern New Mexico and western Texas.
DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based storms continue developing across
the High Plains and spreading east off the higher terrain of eastern
NM. Winds aloft are relatively weak with 20 kt at 500 mb resulting
in less than 30 kt effective bulk shear. This environment is
promoting outflow dominant multicells. Given the large number of
storms, the convective outflow boundaries should congeal and
contribute to development of a forward-propagating line of storms
through west TX where the atmosphere is moderately unstable in the
presence of a strengthening southerly low-level jet. As storms grow
upscale, the threat should transition from isolated large hail and
downburst winds to mostly damaging wind before storms weaken toward
late evening as the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
..Dial.. 05/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33400332 35510387 36610392 36860315 36620241 35110161
33620131 33200252 33400332SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:25 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Roosevelt | 3 hr |
| May 15, 1:57 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Harding, Mora, San Miguel, Union | 2 hr |
| May 15, 2:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Curry, Harding, Quay, Roosevelt, Union | 7 hr |
| May 15, 3:06 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Lea | 7 hr |
| May 15, 5:35 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lea | 85 min |
| May 14, 7:45 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 16 more | 90 min |
| May 15, 11:48 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Hidalgo, Willacy | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.