Mesoscale Discussion 626

Issued

May 15, 2021, 5:35 PM MDT (23:35 UTC)

Expired

May 15, 2021, 7:00 PM MDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 173

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

088 
ACUS11 KWNS 152335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152335 
TXZ000-NMZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and West/Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

Valid 152335Z - 160100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across WW 173.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows a relatively long-lived
supercell with a history of producing severe hail moving southeast
through portions of Pecos county into Terrell county in the Big Bend
region of southwest Texas.  Other cells developing along high
terrain in portions of far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico
are beginning to enter western portions of WW 173. One of these
cells produced a measured wind gust of 62 mph at the Culberson, TX,
ASOS station.

In the near term, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will
remain the primary threat with the ongoing convective activity,
particularly as storms continue moving eastward into improving
thermodynamic conditions. Presently, SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
ranging from near 1000 J/kg in western portions of the watch area,
to near 2000 J/kg along the eastern edge, amid effective shear
values near 35 kt promoting multicell and transient supercell
structures. Thus, the severe threat is expected to continue. 

To the east of WW 173, stabilizing outflow from previous convective
activity is evident in visible satellite imagery, with near 100 J/kg
of SBCIN analyzed in mesoanalysis. These observations suggest the
storm entering Terrell county may have somewhat limited aerial
extent of severe potential as it nears the southeastern edge of the
watch area. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored
closely.

With time, storms farther west may congeal into more of a linear
structure, and should this occur, the threat will transition to
primarily damaging winds through the remainder of the evening.

..Karstens.. 05/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32330432 33260398 33590325 33170251 32840109 31350104
            30210122 29580212 28990320 29320389 30740490 32330432

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.