Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 620

May 15, 20216 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 1:25 PM MDT for 6 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2021, 1:25 PM MDT (19:25 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2021, 4:00 PM MDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 191 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 197 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 254 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -312 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1150 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

074 
ACUS11 KWNS 151926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151925 
TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast NM...TX Trans Pecos

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151925Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours, with some strong to severe storms probable. Primary
severe threat will be strong damaging wind gusts, although a few
instances of hail are also possible. General convective trends will
be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing (both
spatially and in depth) cumulus field across much of the southern
High Plains. Deepest cumulus as well as highest number of lightning
strikes have occurred from roughly TCC (in east-central NM)
southward to west of FST (in the TX Trans Pecos). Surface
observations within this corridor reveal temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 50s. Mesoanalysis is estimating
little to no convective inhibition remains. Given the airmass
destabilization, persistent convergence along the lee trough coupled
with orographic effects and increasing large-scale forcing for
ascent, attendant to an approaching shortwave trough, will likely
result in additional storm development throughout the afternoon.

Deep boundary-layer mixing is ongoing and any storms that do develop
will move into an environment very conducive for damaging wind
gusts. Some hail is also possible, but modest deep-layer vertical
shear and marginal buoyancy should restrain the overall hail
potential. Given the likelihood for strong storm outflow, individual
storm persistence will likely be limited but additional development
along storm outflow appears probable.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33530516 34900475 34570332 31340271 30540304 30590410
            31970492 33530516

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 1:57 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Colfax, Harding, Mora, San Miguel, Union	2 hr
May 15, 2:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Curry, Harding, Quay, Roosevelt, Union	7 hr
May 15, 3:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Lea	7 hr
May 15, 4:56 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Curry, Harding, Quay, Union	94 min
May 15, 5:35 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lea	85 min
May 14, 7:45 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 16 more	90 min
May 15, 11:48 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cameron, Hidalgo, Willacy	87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.