Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 632
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 9:32 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 9:32 PM CDT (02:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 173
Counties Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1081 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2052 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -27 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted.
818
ACUS11 KWNS 160233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160232
TXZ000-160400-
Mesoscale Discussion 0632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...West/Southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...
Valid 160232Z - 160400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 173.
DISCUSSION...Storms moving off the high terrain of southeast New
Mexico have grown upscale into a linear mode. Ahead of this line, a
left moving supercell with a history of severe hail continues to
move northeast toward WW 172. Steep mid-level lapse rates and high
50s F dew point temperatures are promoting near 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
amid 30-35 kt of effective shear. However, instability diminishes
somewhat abruptly to the east of WW 173. Thus, the ongoing
convection should remain organized for a few more hours, maintaining
a threat for mainly damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, a multicell cluster of storms producing large hail
and damaging winds continues to move southeast, approaching Val
Verde county. These storms will likely exit WW 173 within an hour or
so, and a downstream watch is not anticipated at this time due to
the limited spatial coverage of the threat.
..Karstens.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29690185 29760228 30340248 31770281 32830283 33130242
32920114 31580098 30630090 29930099 29660135 29690185SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 9:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Crosby, Floyd and 11 more | 96 min |
| May 16, 12:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 22 more | 2 hr |
| May 16, 3:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 12 more | 119 min |
| May 16, 3:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 19 more | 7 hr |
| May 16, 3:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Clay, Cooke, Jack, Montague, Wichita and 1 more | 89 min |
| May 16, 5:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Midland, Reagan, Sterling | 53 min |
| May 16, 6:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Deaf Smith and 7 more | 93 min |
| May 16, 6:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Borden, Coke, Crockett, Dawson, Fisher, Glasscock and 12 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.