Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 638
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2021, 2:16 PM MDT for 7 counties in New Mexico; 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2021, 2:16 PM MDT (20:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2021, 4:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 25 counties
Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 172 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1470 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
028
ACUS11 KWNS 162016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162016
TXZ000-NMZ000-162215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western/Central TX Panhandle...TX
South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 162016Z - 162215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage anticipated, with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to cover this threat.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus continuing to
deepen along the dryline across central NM. Mesoanalysis estimates
that convective inhibition has now eroded downstream across much of
east-central NM, and the expectation is for the deepening to
continue, with eventual convective initiation. This activity, along
with the storms developing across far northeast NM and southeast CO
(discussed in MCD 636), is expected to move eastward over time into
the more moist and unstable air mass over the TX Panhandle.
Additionally, cumulus has started to build in the vicinity of a
remnant outflow boundary which stretches from near DHT southeastward
to north of CDS. 19Z AMA sounding sampled a weakly capped
environment near this boundary, and there is at least some potential
for thunderstorm development along this boundary as well.
Overall expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to gradually
increase over the next few hours. The environment is weakly sheared,
but steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled favorable low-level
moisture will still result in enough buoyancy for strong to severe
storms. Hail is possible with initial, more cellular development and
as a result of updraft intensification due to cell mergers. High
storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer will also promote
strong outflow. Some amalgamation of this outflow is possible later
this evening.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33570527 35600480 36090393 36200265 35860098 33810127
33460386 33570527SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 1:23 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Union | 2 hr |
| May 16, 2:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Curry, Harding, Quay, Union | 7 hr |
| May 15, 8:09 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Crosby, Floyd and 11 more | 96 min |
| May 15, 8:32 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector and 11 more | 88 min |
| May 16, 11:15 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 22 more | 2 hr |
| May 16, 2:46 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Clay, Cooke, Jack, Montague, Wichita and 1 more | 89 min |
| May 16, 4:52 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Midland, Reagan, Sterling | 53 min |
| May 16, 5:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Deaf Smith and 7 more | 93 min |
| May 16, 5:35 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Borden, Coke, Crockett, Dawson, Fisher, Glasscock and 12 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.