Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 178

May 16, 202118 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 16, 2021, 6:35 PM CDT for 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2021, 6:35 PM CDT (23:35 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Borden County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 7:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFUpton44 min
May 16, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFGlasscock, Reagan52 min
May 16, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFPecos61 min
May 16, 7:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFHoward, Mitchell38 min
May 16, 8:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFMitchell, Scurry47 min
May 16, 8:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Nolan42 min
May 16, 8:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBorden, Mitchell, Scurry44 min
May 16, 9:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatSJTFisher48 min
May 16, 9:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Jones44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 109 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -48 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
109 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-294 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1288 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-19 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

270 
WWUS20 KWNS 162333
SEL8  
SPC WW 162333
TXZ000-170400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
635 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  West Texas

* Effective this Sunday evening from 635 PM until 1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
    possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A couple supercells may develop across a portion of the
Permian Basin and spread slowly east towards the Concho Valley and
Big Country this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Big Spring TX to 95 miles south of Midland TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26020.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 9:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Crosby, Floyd and 11 more96 min
May 15, 9:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector and 11 more88 min
May 16, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 22 more2 hr
May 16, 3:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 12 more119 min
May 16, 3:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 19 more7 hr
May 16, 3:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Clay, Cooke, Jack, Montague, Wichita and 1 more89 min
May 16, 5:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGlasscock, Howard, Irion, Midland, Reagan, Sterling53 min
May 16, 6:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Deaf Smith and 7 more93 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.