Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 631
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 9:09 PM CDT for Texas County, Oklahoma; 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 9:09 PM CDT (02:09 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 10:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 172
Counties Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Swisher County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 826 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -86 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1913 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 161 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.0
The text
As transmitted.
197
ACUS11 KWNS 160209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160209
TXZ000-OKZ000-160345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...west Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...
Valid 160209Z - 160345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and large hail will
persist across the remainder of WW 172 in western TX next couple
hours, after which the threat is expected to diminish. Another WW is
not anticipated after 04Z, but current WW can be locally extended if
needed.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continue moving slowly east
from the western TX Panhandle southward through western TX.
Strongest storms are in the Lubbock CWA while the storms farther
north have shown a weakening trend. A strengthening southerly
low-level jet may help to maintain storms farther east into west TX
next few hours where the atmosphere remains moderately unstable.
However, a stabilizing boundary layer and relatively weak mid-level
flow suggest the overall severe threat should gradually diminish
toward late evening.
..Dial.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32950218 34760261 36560246 36860159 36450101 34300103
33260103 32950218SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron | 2 hr |
| May 16, 3:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cimarron, Texas | 7 hr |
| May 16, 3:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Cotton, Jefferson, Love, Marshall, Murray and 1 more | 89 min |
| May 15, 9:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector and 11 more | 88 min |
| May 16, 12:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee and 22 more | 2 hr |
| May 16, 3:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 12 more | 119 min |
| May 16, 5:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Midland, Reagan, Sterling | 53 min |
| May 16, 6:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Deaf Smith and 7 more | 93 min |
| May 16, 6:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Borden, Coke, Crockett, Dawson, Fisher, Glasscock and 12 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.