Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 636
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2021, 1:23 PM MDT for 8 counties in Colorado; Union County, New Mexico; Cimarron County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2021, 1:23 PM MDT (19:23 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 267 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 215 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -294 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 861 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
957
ACUS11 KWNS 161924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161923
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-162130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...Southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far Western OK
Panhandle...Far Northwest TX Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161923Z - 162130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the region. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail
are possible with the strongest storms, as well as a few landspouts
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increasing cumulus
across the Front Range/Sangre De Cristos over the past few hours.
Some lightning has recently been observed within the convection
along the CO/NM border with a strong cell now ongoing over Union
County NM. General expectation is for the storms to continue
building over the high terrain before then moving eastward into
southeast CO and north-east NM. Additionally, a surface low is in
place over southeast CO and increasing low-level convergence in the
vicinity of this low likely contributed to storm initiation in Union
County NM.
Expectation is for storm coverage to increase over the next few
hours as diurnal heating contributes to moderate destabilization. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and resultant steep low/mid-level lapse
rates suggest the primary severe threat will be damaging wind gusts
associated with thunderstorm outflow. Some isolated hail may also
occur. Additionally, given the increased surface vorticity
associated with the surface low, landspouts also appear possible.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37880521 38590521 38630414 38210241 37350214 36130267
36450434 36900508 37880521SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 7:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kiowa, Prowers | 66 min |
| May 16, 2:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas and 3 more | 7 hr |
| May 16, 4:11 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Washington, Yuma | 94 min |
| May 16, 2:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Quay, Roosevelt and 1 more | 119 min |
| May 15, 8:09 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Texas | 96 min |
| May 16, 2:46 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Cotton, Jefferson, Love, Marshall, Murray and 1 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.