Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 630
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 7:54 PM MDT for Kiowa County, Prowers County, Colorado; Grant County, Hamilton County, Stanton County, Kansas. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 7:54 PM MDT (01:54 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 9:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 175
Counties Kiowa County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Stanton County, KS
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 177 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1303 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -15 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1181 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 5.1
The text
As transmitted.
668
ACUS11 KWNS 160154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160154
KSZ000-COZ000-160300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 175...
Valid 160154Z - 160300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail, downburst winds and a brief tornado
remain possible across southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas,
but a gradual weakening trend is expected to commence, especially
after 03Z.
DISCUSSION...Small storm clusters continue moving slowly northeast
through southeast CO and near the southeast CO/KS border. Some
rotation was previously observed with storms that interacted with
the stationary boundary across southeast CO where a tornado was
reported. A brief tornado remains possible next hour or so, but
primary threat appears to be isolated large hail and downburst
winds. A strengthening low-level jet might maintain a small storm
cluster or two into southwest KS this evening. However, weak flow
aloft and increasing convective inhibition associated with the onset
of nocturnal cooling suggest the severe threat should begin to wane
by 04Z.
..Dial.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 37150233 37680279 38340338 38580261 38230175 37430120
37150233SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 1:23 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero and 2 more | 2 hr |
| May 16, 2:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas and 3 more | 7 hr |
| May 16, 4:11 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Washington, Yuma | 94 min |
| May 15, 9:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Edwards, Finney, Harvey, Hodgeman, Kingman and 12 more | 95 min |
| May 16, 12:27 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Coffey, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.