Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 635
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2021, 1:27 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 34 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2021, 1:27 PM CDT (18:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 45 counties
Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1041 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
771
ACUS11 KWNS 161827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161827
MOZ000-KSZ000-162000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...eastern Kansas western Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161827Z - 162000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon along and south of an outflow boundary across the Kansas
Missouri border. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...1800 UTC RADAR observation showed a poorly organized
cluster of thunderstorm across portions of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri ahead of an MCV across central Oklahoma. To the
south of the ongoing complex, a well defined outflow boundary was
observed in the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. A few
thunderstorms have developed along and south of this boundary within
the last half hour. Visible satellite and surface data show clearing
and warming are ongoing to the south and east of these storms across
southern Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Airmass recovery from
earlier cloud cover appears to be underway with surface temperatures
and dewpoints in the low 70s and low 60s F respectively contributing
to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis.
Primary uncertainty revolves around the limited potential for
convective organization given weak mid and upper-level flow. Some
increase in the weak bulk-shear profile (currently < 25 kts) is
possible as the MCV across Oklahoma spreads northeastward over the
next couple of hours. The main severe threat with storms through
this afternoon will be damaging winds, but some potential for
near-severe hail will remain possible given mid-level lapse rates
around 7 C/km. Convective trends will be monitored, but uncertainty
on storm organization suggests a weather watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38759510 39249390 39299282 39259219 38829173 38029161
37639202 37149312 37209553 37369599 38069621 38759510SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 8:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Stanton | 66 min |
| May 15, 10:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Edwards, Finney, Harvey, Hodgeman, Kingman and 12 more | 95 min |
| May 16, 3:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 7 hr |
| May 16, 5:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Gove, Greeley, Logan, Rawlins, Scott and 5 more | 94 min |
| May 16, 5:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Cooper and 16 more | 86 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.