Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 633
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 10:40 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 10:40 PM CDT (03:40 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2021, 12:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 176
Counties Barton County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Finney County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Wichita County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1303 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -15 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1181 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 5.1
The text
As transmitted.
247
ACUS11 KWNS 160341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160340
KSZ000-160515-
Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...western through southern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...
Valid 160340Z - 160515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for isolated large
hail and locally strong wind gusts over western through central and
southern KS through 05Z followed by a gradual weakening trend.
DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered storms continue
developing within an evolving warm advection regime. Latest VWP data
show the low-level jet has strengthened to 40 kt, and this should
support additional storms the next couple of hours. The atmosphere
is moderately unstable with 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. However, winds aloft
are relatively weak indicating storms will remain primarily
multicell in character, and also suggests the large hail threat with
any given updraft will be brief. A few instances of locally strong
wind gusts are also possible within the stronger cores.
..Dial.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37269748 37559940 38170135 38710139 38870029 38589820
37999732 37269748SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 8:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Stanton | 66 min |
| May 16, 1:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Coffey, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more | 93 min |
| May 16, 3:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 7 hr |
| May 16, 5:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Gove, Greeley, Logan, Rawlins, Scott and 5 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.