Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 640
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2021, 4:11 PM MDT for 6 counties in Colorado; 11 counties in Kansas; Dundy County, Nebraska. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 2021, 4:11 PM MDT (22:11 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 2021, 5:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Gove County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 215 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -294 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 861 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
477
ACUS11 KWNS 162212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162211
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-162345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...and far
Southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162211Z - 162345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of severe hail and gusty
outflow winds are possible this evening. WW issuance not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows clearing/destabilization
occurring and a broad/deepening cumulus field developing across much
of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas, with a few convective
cells developing north of WW 177 along a stationary boundary. The
environment in this region is characterized by moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km), and
weak deep layer shear (20-25 kt effective shear), per the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. A few strong storms are possible this evening with
this activity, posing an isolated threat for severe hail and gusty
outflow winds. Given the weakly sheared environment, storms will
likely struggle to maintain organization and become somewhat
disorganized. Thus, although a few strong storms are possible, watch
issuance is not anticipated at this time.
..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38220330 38650423 39930341 40320197 39840052 38890020
38270088 38220330SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 7:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kiowa, Prowers | 66 min |
| May 16, 1:23 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero and 2 more | 2 hr |
| May 16, 2:43 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas and 3 more | 7 hr |
| May 15, 9:40 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Edwards, Finney, Harvey, Hodgeman, Kingman and 12 more | 95 min |
| May 16, 12:27 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Coffey, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more | 93 min |
| May 15, 6:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arthur, Chase, Deuel, Garden, Hayes, Keith and 3 more | 63 min |
| May 15, 6:41 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Banner, Kimball, Scotts Bluff | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.