Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 625

May 15, 2021Bent County, Prowers County, Colorado; Grant County, Hamilton County, Stanton County, Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 5:17 PM MDT for Bent County, Prowers County, Colorado; Grant County, Hamilton County, Stanton County, Kansas. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2021, 5:17 PM MDT (23:17 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2021, 6:15 PM MDT
In force: 58 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Tornado watch 175

Counties Bent County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Stanton County, KS

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 191 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176May 15, 5:55 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 261 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -326 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 769 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

806 
ACUS11 KWNS 152318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152317 
KSZ000-COZ000-160015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 175...

Valid 152317Z - 160015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues.

SUMMARY...A relatively small window will exist through mid evening
for brief isolated tornadoes from a portion of southeast Colorado
through southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a stationary boundary extends
through southwest Kansas into southeast Colorado. Dewpoints are
generally in the upper 50s to around 60 F in vicinity of this
boundary contributing to somewhat lower LCLs and up to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Storms will continue spreading eastward off the higher
terrain, and other storms may initiate on the boundary. Effective
bulk shear around 35 kt will promote both multicell and marginal
supercell structures, and some increase in 0-2 km hodograph size
will occur as the low-level jet strengthens this evening. The
primary threat for a few brief tornadoes is expected to occur as
storms develop along or move east and interact with the boundary
where low-level vorticity will be maximized.

..Dial.. 05/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...PUB...

LAT...LON   37240133 37400237 37420350 38040358 38260247 37920123
            37240133

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 1:57 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley and 15 more	2 hr
May 15, 4:06 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas, Elbert and 9 more	6 hr
May 15, 5:07 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baca, Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Otero, Prowers	5 hr
May 14, 6:10 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ellis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan, Ness and 5 more	2 hr
May 14, 6:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 16 more	5 hr
May 14, 8:42 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Edwards, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee	63 min
May 15, 5:44 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chautauqua, Cowley, Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Kingman and 7 more	61 min
May 15, 5:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 37 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.