Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 617
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 9:42 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 63 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 9:42 PM CDT (02:42 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 10:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 63 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 170
Counties Edwards County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1153 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1827 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 81 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 5.9
The text
As transmitted.
152
ACUS11 KWNS 150243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150242
KSZ000-150345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0942 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...for parts of southwest and central KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...
Valid 150242Z - 150345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.
SUMMARY...The hail risk will decrease considerably as storm
morphology and continued cold pool coalescence occur over the next
hour across parts of central into southwest KS. The risk for severe
gusts (possibly significant-- 60-80 mph) will probably increase.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows gradual upscale growth of a cluster
of storms over west-central into central KS during the past 30-60
minutes. The LLJ continues to intensify this evening with 50 kt
sampled around 0.5 km AGL. The steep 700-500 mb lapse rate sampled
by the 7 pm CDT Dodge City raob will favor strong downdrafts,
especially with the more precip-loaded cores. Given the expected
upscale growth to occur during the 930-1030 pm CDT period, the
potential for gusts will probably maximize during this timeframe as
the still-vigorous cores transition to a more outflow-dominant
morphology. The risk for severe gusts will eventually push south of
US 50 by 1130 pm CDT as the cold pool pushes southeast.
..Smith.. 05/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37849869 37689921 38120035 38480021 38499953 38229876
37849869SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 7:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan, Ness and 5 more | 2 hr |
| May 14, 7:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 16 more | 5 hr |
| May 15, 6:07 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 5 hr |
| May 15, 6:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Stanton | 58 min |
| May 15, 6:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cowley, Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Kingman and 7 more | 61 min |
| May 15, 6:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 37 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.