Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 627
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2021, 6:44 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 6:44 PM CDT (23:44 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ford County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Sumner County, KS
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 300 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 706 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
313
ACUS11 KWNS 152344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152344
KSZ000-OKZ000-160045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0627
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...southern Kansas through northeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152344Z - 160045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage,
primarily over southern Kansas this evening. The primary threat will
be isolated large hail, but a few instances of downburst winds are
also possible.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening a stationary front extends from
northeast OK through southern KS. The atmosphere is moderately
unstable in the vicinity of this boundary with up to 2500 J/kg
MUCAPE along with steep (7.5-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Storms
are in the process of developing along/north of this boundary and
activity should increase in coverage as the low-level jet
strengthens this evening. Vertical wind profiles are weak, so
multicells should be the primary mode. Nevertheless, a few instances
of large hail may occur with initial storms before activity begins
to weaken by late evening.
..Dial/Grams.. 05/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38380042 38289822 37229604 36659646 37369856 37810063
38380042SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 7:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan, Ness and 5 more | 2 hr |
| May 14, 7:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 16 more | 5 hr |
| May 14, 9:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Edwards, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee | 63 min |
| May 15, 6:07 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 5 hr |
| May 15, 6:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Stanton | 58 min |
| May 15, 6:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 37 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.