Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 615
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2021, 7:10 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2021, 7:10 PM CDT (00:10 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 170
Counties Ellis County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1153 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1827 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 81 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 5.9
The text
As transmitted.
489
ACUS11 KWNS 150011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150010
KSZ000-150215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...west-central KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...
Valid 150010Z - 150215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.
SUMMARY...A supercell or two in the northeast part of WW 170 will
move slowly to the south-southeast. Hail and wind are the primary
risks. Eventual thunderstorm outflow consolidation will focus the
risk for severe gusts over parts of west-central KS in the 0200-0330
UTC period.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms across parts of northwest KS into eastern CO, and
farther south into extreme southeast CO moving into southwest KS as
of 0000 UTC. A strengthening LLJ over the next 2 hours will further
aid in storm activity consolidating over western KS as it moves into
a more moisture-rich airmass with mid-upper 50s deg F dewpoints.
Steep lapse rates evident on the 0000 UTC Dodge City raob (7.8 deg
C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) will aid in storm intensity, despite
gradual cooling in the boundary layer this evening. Large hail and
severe gusts may accompany the more discrete activity over the
northeast portion of WW 170. Otherwise, severe gusts (60-75 mph)
will become the primary concern this evening over west-central KS.
..Smith.. 05/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39520120 39650026 39389933 38869919 38179964 38060068
38560141 39520120SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 7:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 16 more | 5 hr |
| May 14, 9:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Edwards, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee | 63 min |
| May 15, 6:07 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 5 hr |
| May 15, 6:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Hamilton, Stanton | 58 min |
| May 15, 6:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cowley, Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Kingman and 7 more | 61 min |
| May 15, 6:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 37 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.