Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176

May 15, 202143 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 15, 2021, 6:53 PM CDT for 43 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2021, 6:53 PM CDT (23:53 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 43 counties

Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Logan County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Seward County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 8:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGreeley34 min
May 15, 9:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDWichita36 min
May 15, 9:26 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGLDGreeley4 hr
May 15, 9:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGreeley44 min
May 15, 9:34 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGLDWichita4 hr
May 15, 9:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDLogan, Wallace45 min
May 15, 10:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCGray23 min
May 15, 10:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGove39 min
May 15, 10:25 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGLDLogan3 hr
May 15, 10:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCLane, Scott49 min
May 15, 10:53 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGLDGove3 hr
May 15, 11:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDGove, Logan42 min
May 15, 11:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCStafford18 min
May 15, 11:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningGLDWichita2 hr
May 15, 11:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDSheridan15 min
May 16, 12:14 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTHarvey, Sedgwick61 min
May 16, 12:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTHarvey, McPherson, Marion22 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 313 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2021-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -53 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1278 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

250 
WWUS20 KWNS 152351
SEL6  
SPC WW 152351
KSZ000-160600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
655 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and central Kansas

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 655 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Several cells should develop in a largely
west/east-oriented band this evening before consolidating into
multiple slow-moving clusters. Large hail will be the primary threat
with initial development.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west northwest
of Garden City KS to 20 miles east southeast of Hutchinson KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 7:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEllis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan, Ness and 5 more2 hr
May 14, 7:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 16 more5 hr
May 14, 9:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee63 min
May 15, 6:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCGrant, Hamilton, Kearny, Morton, Stanton, Stevens5 hr
May 15, 6:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrant, Hamilton, Stanton58 min
May 15, 6:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Kingman and 7 more61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.