Alert archive / Colorado / Tornado Watches in 2021
Tornado Watch 175
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2021, 5:07 PM MDT for 6 counties in Colorado; 6 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2021, 5:07 PM MDT (23:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2021, 10:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 10%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 20%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 50%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 5:22 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Baca | 38 min |
| May 15, 5:46 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Bent, Otero | 59 min |
| May 15, 6:22 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Baca | 23 min |
| May 15, 6:26 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Otero | 64 min |
| May 15, 6:56 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Prowers | 64 min |
| May 15, 6:58 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Baca | 32 min |
| May 15, 7:01 PM MDT | Tornado Warning | PUB | Bent | 17 min |
| May 15, 8:30 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PUB | Kiowa | 45 min |
| May 15, 9:07 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Stevens | 38 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -326 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 769 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
543
WWUS20 KWNS 152303
SEL5
SPC WW 152303
COZ000-KSZ000-160400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Southwest Kansas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter
possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A supercell or two may develop along an west-northwest to
east-southeast oriented boundary with a risk for a couple tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of La Junta
CO to 80 miles east northeast of Springfield CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29020.
...GramsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:57 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley and 15 more | 2 hr |
| May 15, 4:06 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas, Elbert and 9 more | 6 hr |
| May 15, 5:17 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bent, Prowers | 58 min |
| May 14, 6:10 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan, Ness and 5 more | 2 hr |
| May 14, 6:27 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 16 more | 5 hr |
| May 14, 8:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Edwards, Hodgeman, Ness, Pawnee | 63 min |
| May 15, 5:44 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Cowley, Edwards, Ford, Hodgeman, Kingman and 7 more | 61 min |
| May 15, 5:53 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellis and 37 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Colorado, 2021Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.