Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1827

October 10, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 10, 2021, 11:32 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 11:32 PM CDT (04:32 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2021, 1:30 AM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 519
All 33 counties

Benton County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Washington County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Jasper County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1436 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 187 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1436 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1199 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
255 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.9
Supercell composite
8.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

084 
ACUS11 KWNS 110432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110432 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO...Western
AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 519...

Valid 110432Z - 110630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 519 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will continue shifting east across the
remainder of ww519 over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is strengthening along the OK/AR border late this
evening. As a result, low-level shear is quite strong across the
warm sector where adequate buoyancy continues to reside. Latest
diagnostic data suggests the current squall line is advancing
through the instability axis and subsequent movement appreciably
east of the current watch should result in weaker updrafts due to
lower boundary-layer dew points. However, stronger updrafts along
the squall line, that extends across eastern OK, continue to exhibit
transient supercellular characteristics at times. These features
have been mostly responsible for brief tornado reports as the squall
line advances east. These robust structures will likely persist
until convection propagates east of the greater buoyancy, east of
ww519.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33859590 37499593 37499394 33849400 33859590

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 9:24 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more5 hr
Oct 10, 10:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLittle River, Polk, Sevier59 min
Oct 10, 11:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 6 more5 hr
Oct 11, 12:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 5 more92 min
Oct 11, 1:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more64 min
Oct 10, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Elk and 5 more86 min
Oct 11, 5:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCedar, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory and 7 more2 hr
Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Callaway, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 11 more2 hr
Oct 10, 8:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Johnston, Love and 1 more64 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.