Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1824

October 10, 202111 counties in Kansas; Bates County, Missouri; Nowata County, Washington County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 10, 2021, 7:19 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; Bates County, Missouri; Nowata County, Washington County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 7:19 PM CDT (00:19 UTC)
Expired
Oct 10, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 517

Counties Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Bates County, MO, Nowata County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2067 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

134 
ACUS11 KWNS 110019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110019 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 110019Z - 110145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across southeast KS/southwest
MO. A new tornado watch may be warranted for this region.

DISCUSSION...Strong short-wave trough is advancing east across the
southern High Plains this evening. In response, LLJ is forecast to
increase markedly across eastern OK into southwest MO over the next
several hours. 00z sounding from OUN exhibits a classic supercell
wind profile, but some capping still exists near 700mb. Adequate
buoyancy extends northeast ahead of the front into southeast KS
which should encourage strong/severe thunderstorms along/ahead of
the front in the next few hours. Strengthening low-level shear
supports some risk for a few tornadoes.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37039671 38139554 38279432 37539438 36529564 37039671

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 9:24 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCherokee, Labette5 hr
Oct 10, 11:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette, Montgomery118 min
Oct 11, 1:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Dade, Greene, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald and 2 more64 min
Oct 11, 5:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCedar, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory and 7 more2 hr
Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Callaway, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 11 more2 hr
Oct 10, 8:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Johnston, Love and 1 more64 min
Oct 10, 10:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, McCurtain and 1 more59 min
Oct 10, 11:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.