Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1826
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 10, 2021, 10:16 PM CDT for Little River County, Polk County, Sevier County, Arkansas; 7 counties in Oklahoma; 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 59 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 10, 2021, 10:16 PM CDT (03:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 10, 2021, 11:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 59 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 518
All 51 counties
Little River County, AR, Polk County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Johnston County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Marion County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Morris County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1814 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -39 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1524 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 130 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 253 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.5
- Supercell composite
- 11.2
The text
As transmitted.
951
ACUS11 KWNS 110316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110316
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-110415-
Mesoscale Discussion 1826
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
Areas affected...north and northeast Texas...southeast
Oklahoma...and far southwest Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...
Valid 110316Z - 110415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.
SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move east
across north Texas and southeast Oklahoma this evening. Very strong,
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes remain possible.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to move east across north Texas
and south Oklahoma this evening. These thunderstorms have a history
of producing severe, damaging winds, with several measured wind
reports of 60-70 mph across the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metro,
including a 70 mph wind at DFW, were recorded within the last hour.
The strong wind fields conducive to these severe thunderstorm winds
will also be capable of producing tornadoes along the leading edge
of the squall line, especially where kinks in the line occur. Given
the very moist, unstable airmass and strong kinematic fields across
the area, the severe threat will continues.
Farther east, across northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas, more
uncertainty exists as to the magnitude of the severe potential.
Here, instability is weaker than farther west and will be farther
removed from the stronger influence of the lifting mid-level trough.
However, the level of organization of the ongoing storms, and a
couple more hours of theta-e advection may support an extension of
the severe risk into this area. Conditions here, downstream of
Tornado Watch #518, continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance this evening.
..Marsh.. 10/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31209831 32089755 33189713 34169671 34819657 34929613
34809418 34169412 32629404 32239454 31639559 30739704
31209831SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 9:24 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 5 hr |
| Oct 10, 11:07 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Oct 10, 11:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Polk, Scott, Sebastian, Sevier and 1 more | 118 min |
| Oct 11, 12:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 5 more | 92 min |
| Oct 11, 1:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 64 min |
| Oct 10, 7:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Nowata, Washington | 86 min |
| Oct 10, 8:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Johnston, Love and 1 more | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.