Alert archive / Oklahoma / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 519

October 10, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 10, 2021, 9:24 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 9:24 PM CDT (02:24 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 39 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Cherokee County, KS, Labette County, KS, Barry County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 9:28 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACreek, Okfuskee24 min
Oct 10, 9:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSACreek, McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa54 min
Oct 10, 10:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAMcIntosh, Pittsburg59 min
Oct 10, 10:05 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAOkmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner25 min
Oct 10, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSANowata, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington36 min
Oct 10, 10:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSAMcIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner56 min
Oct 10, 10:21 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAMcIntosh, Pittsburg39 min
Oct 10, 10:29 PM CDTTornado WarningTSATulsa, Wagoner46 min
Oct 10, 10:41 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAMcIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee34 min
Oct 10, 10:43 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAWagoner32 min
Oct 10, 10:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAChoctaw, Latimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha67 min
Oct 10, 10:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatTSACherokee, Delaware, McIntosh, Mayes, Muskogee, Rogers and 1 more64 min
Oct 10, 10:58 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAHaskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg47 min
Oct 10, 11:05 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAMayes, Rogers, Wagoner40 min
Oct 10, 11:33 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACherokee, Muskogee, Sequoyah42 min
Oct 10, 11:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa50 min
Oct 11, 12:07 AM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee38 min
Oct 11, 12:09 AM CDTTornado WarningTSABenton39 min
Oct 11, 12:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald27 min
Oct 11, 12:25 AM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedSGFMcDonald35 min
Oct 11, 12:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton47 min
Oct 11, 1:16 AM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedSGFNewton29 min
Oct 11, 1:31 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper, Newton22 min
Oct 11, 1:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Pawnee33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2067 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

253 
WWUS20 KWNS 110222
SEL9  
SPC WW 110222
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  northwest Arkansas
  southeast Kansas
  southwest Missouri
  eastern Oklahoma

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 920 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Squall line with bowing segments and embedded mesovortices
will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes as it continues through eastern Oklahoma and toward the
Ozarks area tonight.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Joplin MO to 35
miles west southwest of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 517...WW 518...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26040.

...Dial

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 10:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLittle River, Polk, Sevier59 min
Oct 10, 11:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 6 more5 hr
Oct 10, 11:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Polk, Scott, Sebastian, Sevier and 1 more118 min
Oct 11, 12:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 5 more92 min
Oct 11, 1:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more64 min
Oct 10, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Crawford, Elk and 5 more86 min
Oct 11, 5:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCedar, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory and 7 more2 hr
Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Callaway, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 11 more2 hr
Oct 10, 8:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Johnston, Love and 1 more64 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2021Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.