Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1825

October 10, 20217 counties in Oklahoma; 43 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 10, 2021, 8:11 PM CDT for 7 counties in Oklahoma; 43 counties in Texas. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 8:11 PM CDT (01:11 UTC)
Expired
Oct 10, 2021, 9:15 PM CDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 518
All 50 counties

Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Coal County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 5 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 24 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1814 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 130 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1814 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1524 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
130 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
253 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.5
Supercell composite
11.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

756 
ACUS11 KWNS 110111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110111 
OKZ000-TXZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...north Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...

Valid 110111Z - 110215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong winds, large hail, and
tornadoes will move east across the region this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop and intensity along a
surging dryline across northwest Texas this evening. These
thunderstorms will be capable of producing very strong winds as
strong westerly low-level flow along and west of the dryline is
transported to the ground within thunderstorm downdrafts.
Additionally, ahead of the dryline, low-level theta-e and
instability will be maintained as the nocturnal low-level jet ramps
up and moisture slowly increases, yielding some hail threat.
Additionally, tornadoes cannot be ruled out within the advancing
squall line given the degree of low-level shear across the warm
sector, especially with any kinks that develop along the line. Thus,
despite the loss of diurnal heating, the severe potential will
increase through the evening across much of north Texas.

..Marsh.. 10/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31299942 32089886 33159837 33819802 34709677 34729614
            34289570 33529539 32169556 31349584 30819686 30899837
            31299942

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNowata, Washington86 min
Oct 10, 9:24 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 19 more5 hr
Oct 10, 10:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, McCurtain and 1 more59 min
Oct 10, 11:07 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain5 hr
Oct 10, 11:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Delaware, Haskell and 14 more118 min
Oct 11, 12:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Gregg and 13 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.