Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1830
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 11, 2021, 5:00 AM CDT for 13 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 11, 2021, 5:00 AM CDT (10:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 11, 2021, 7:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2067 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
593
ACUS11 KWNS 111000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111000
MOZ000-111200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021
Areas affected...Portions of southwestern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111000Z - 111200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for a brief tornado and isolated strong/gusty
winds may continue for a couple more hours early this morning. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...A low-topped line of convection has recently moved into
parts of southwestern MO. A strong, 50+ kt low-level jet is present
over this region. This low-level jet and a pronounced southwesterly
mid-level jet associated with a shortwave trough ejecting from the
southern Plains across the Ozarks are supporting strong low-level
and deep-layer shear. One of the cells embedded within the
low-topped line recently acquired low-level rotation, and a
corresponding CC minimum in dual pol radar data from KSGF. Although
the low-level shear remains rather favorable for continued storm
organization in the short term across southwestern MO, the
thermodynamic environment is much more marginal. A leading wave of
convection has already moved across this region, with surface
temperatures generally in the upper 60s. Weak boundary-layer
instability should continue to limit updraft intensities,
particularly as these storms move eastward and away from a narrow,
maximized corridor of this instability characterized by MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg. While a brief tornado and strong/gusty winds may
continue to be a threat for the next couple of hours, the overall
severe threat will probably remain too isolated to justify new watch
issuance early this morning.
..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37629426 37919437 38269393 38269310 37769260 37089279
36539306 36539377 36829380 37309403 37629426SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 7:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bates | 86 min |
| Oct 10, 9:24 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barry, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton | 5 hr |
| Oct 10, 11:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jasper, McDonald, Newton | 118 min |
| Oct 11, 1:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Dade, Greene, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald and 2 more | 64 min |
| Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 11 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.