Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1829
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 11, 2021, 1:26 AM CDT for 7 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 11, 2021, 1:26 AM CDT (06:26 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 11, 2021, 2:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 519
Counties Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Dade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Stone County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2067 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
148
ACUS11 KWNS 110627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110626
MOZ000-ARZ000-110730-
Mesoscale Discussion 1829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021
Areas affected...Portions of northwestern AR and southwestern MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 519...
Valid 110626Z - 110730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 519 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue across mainly
southwestern Missouri in the short term, but downstream watch
issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms that has recently moved from eastern
OK into western AR and southwestern MO has generally weakened as it
encounters a less unstable airmass. One exception has been with a
small segment across southwestern MO, where a low-level circulation
with corresponding CC minimum has been detected by the KSGF radar.
Clearly the low-level shear remains favorable for a brief embedded
tornado or two with this activity. But, the thermodynamic
environment downstream, with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, appears only
marginally conducive for sustained severe convection. Tornado Watch
519 is currently scheduled to expire at 07Z (2 AM CDT). While a
small extension in time and area to WW 519 is possible across a
small part of southwestern MO downstream of the ongoing storms, the
overall severe threat is not expected to be great enough beyond the
next 1-2 hours to justify new downstream watch issuance.
..Gleason.. 10/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35059438 35639442 36369451 37359453 37649411 37569337
37139319 36119342 35409380 35059438SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 9:24 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 5 hr |
| Oct 10, 10:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Little River, Polk, Sevier | 59 min |
| Oct 10, 11:07 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Oct 10, 11:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Polk, Scott, Sebastian, Sevier and 1 more | 118 min |
| Oct 11, 12:58 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Logan, Miller and 5 more | 92 min |
| Oct 10, 7:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bates | 86 min |
| Oct 11, 5:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cedar, Christian, Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory and 7 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 11 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.