Mesoscale Discussion 163

Issued

Mar 13, 2021, 10:48 AM MST (17:48 UTC)

Expired

Mar 13, 2021, 12:45 PM MST

In force

117 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

Counties Curry County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Bailey County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 19Mar 13, 11:35 AM MST

192 
ACUS11 KWNS 131748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131748 COR
TXZ000-NMZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Areas affected...east-central NM into portions of northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 131748Z - 131945Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will rapidly increase by early afternoon
across far east-central NM into northwest TX. Supercells capable of
all severe hazards are possible. The area is being monitored for
watch issuance in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730z, a surface low was located to the southwest
of Clovis, NM. A dryline extended southward from the low across the
southeastern Plains of NM into southwest TX. Strong heating
along/ahead of the dryline amid thinning cirrus shield over western
portions of the TX South Plains has allowed temperatures to increase
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Dewpoints are quickly increasing into
the low 60s across the region as well. As a result, inhibition is
quickly eroding near and east of the surface low, and deepening CU
has rapidly developed late this morning along the dryline.
Thunderstorms continue to develop near the surface low and north of
a quasi-stationary surface boundary stretching west-east across
east-central NM and the TX Panhandle. This activity is likely
elevated, but may continue to pose a threat for near-severe hail. 

As the dryline continues to mix eastward into early afternoon,
isolated thunderstorm development is expected in the next couple of
hours near the NM/TX border where little capping remains and MLCAPE
has increased to 1000-1500 J/kg. This activity will initially be
capable of large hail and strong gusts. VWP data from KFDX shows a
long, straight hodograph with weak low-level directional shear.
Initial splitting supercells are expected. As this activity shifts
east/northeast into northwest TX, low level hodographs should begin
to enlarge as storms encounter stronger backed low-level winds. This
should increase tornado potential as cells progress eastward into a
better low level shear and moisture environment.

..Leitman/Grams.. 03/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34350393 34720378 35010358 35220339 35360304 35400261
            35330243 35160213 34850183 34090162 33410146 33100156
            32780184 32740196 32700223 32760271 33030314 33510368
            33990395 34350393

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.