Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 162
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 13, 2021, 6:36 AM MST for Harding County, Quay County, Union County, New Mexico; Cimarron County, Oklahoma; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 13, 2021, 6:36 AM MST (13:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 13, 2021, 9:00 AM MST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 188 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -140 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 540 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 73 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 162 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 216 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.9
The text
As transmitted.
295
ACUS11 KWNS 131337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131336
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-131600-
Mesoscale Discussion 0162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM and the western TX/OK
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131336Z - 131600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail may develop this
morning. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Pronounced ascent preceding a mid/upper-level jet has
encouraged the development of elevated thunderstorms across parts of
east-central into northeastern NM this morning. This activity is
occurring on the northern fringe returning boundary-layer moisture,
with latest mesoanalysis showing an elevated instability gradient
extending southwest to northeast across this area. 12Z observed
soundings from both ABQ and AMA show steep mid-level lapse rates,
which should support MUCAPE generally in the 400-750 J/kg range this
morning to the north of a surface front. Very strong effective bulk
shear of 50-60+ kt will likely support supercell structures and an
isolated large hail risk as these storms move quickly northeastward.
Current expectations are for these storms to remain largely elevated
to the north of the surface front through the morning. The overall
hail threat should remain fairly limited due to the marginal
thermodynamic environment, and watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 03/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34980421 35400432 36280375 36950303 36970202 36820166
36350162 35250217 35010245 34830304 34780382 34980421SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 10:48 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Curry, Roosevelt | 117 min |
| Mar 13, 11:36 AM MST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Curry, Quay, Roosevelt | 5 hr |
| Mar 12, 7:11 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harmon, Jackson, Tillman | 64 min |
| Mar 12, 10:08 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Harmon, Roger Mills | 2 hr |
| Mar 13, 12:52 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Harmon | 113 min |
| Mar 12, 7:38 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Cochran and 29 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 13, 12:06 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Cottle, Foard, Hardeman, Motley | 54 min |
| Mar 13, 1:26 PM MST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 19 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 13, 1:39 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Ector and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 13, 2:23 PM MST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson, Fisher and 18 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 13, 2:46 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Donley, Floyd, Hale and 5 more | 59 min |
| Mar 13, 3:10 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Hutchinson, Randall | 65 min |
| Mar 13, 4:46 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 18 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.