Mesoscale Discussion 166

Issued

Mar 13, 2021, 2:39 PM CST (20:39 UTC)

Expired

Mar 13, 2021, 4:45 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 21Mar 13, 3:20 PM CST

452 
ACUS11 KWNS 132039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132039 
TXZ000-132245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 132039Z - 132245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected in the next 1-2 hours
along the dryline in West Texas.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows cumulus increasing along the
dryline from west of Lubbock southward to near Fort Stockton.
Recently, some reflectivity has started to appear on radar as deeper
updrafts develop along this strengthening dryline circulation. This
activity is currently in the dry/well mixed airmass with only
limited instability. However, through time, it is expected to
interact with more robust low-level moisture and an airmass
characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. 

Despite only moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates (~8.5
C/km) and strong effective shear (46 kts) per 20Z MAF RAOB will
provide an ample environment for a few supercells initially. During
this stage, large hail will be possible in addition to strong
downdrafts in the well mixed airmass. However, storms are expected
to quickly go linear due to mostly boundary parallel mean flow and
storm interactions. A severe wind threat will persist for a few
hours after these storms congeal into a line before becoming less
intense during the late evening hours as the boundary layer cools. 

The overall tornado threat will likely be limited by initial storm
formation in a well mixed airmass and eventual linear storm mode by
the time storms encounter a more moist boundary layer with backed
low-level flow. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out,
especially with any tail-end supercell which may develop and
interact with more robust low-level moisture and more backed
low-level flow east of Fort Stockton. A watch is likely by 22Z.

..Bentley/Grams.. 03/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32440271 33240254 33680240 33740220 33700153 33340112
            32480092 31540092 29980107 29470122 29670142 29710165
            29780225 29700247 30070279 30870285 32440271

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.