Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1489

August 11, 2021Carroll County, Jo Daviess County, Stephenson County, Illinois; 11 counties in Iowa; 9 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 11, 2021, 5:40 PM CDT for Carroll County, Jo Daviess County, Stephenson County, Illinois; 11 counties in Iowa; 9 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 11, 2021, 5:40 PM CDT (22:40 UTC)
Expired
Aug 11, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 424
All 23 counties

Benton County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Linn County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Carroll County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2852 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-08-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 170 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2852 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-107 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1040 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
170 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
193 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

742 
ACUS11 KWNS 112241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112240 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northwest IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 424...

Valid 112240Z - 120015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 424 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from eastern IA into southwest WI will
continue to pose a short-term severe threat. The eastward extent of
the threat this evening remains uncertain due to the impact of
earlier convection across southern WI/northern IL. Storm coverage is
being monitored for possible watch issuance across eastern IA.

DISCUSSION...At 2230Z, a few intense cells are ongoing from eastern
IA into southwest WI, within an environment characterized by large
CAPE and effective shear of 25-35 kt. The mature storms in this
region will continue to pose a short-term threat of locally damaging
wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two into the early evening as
they move eastward. 

Downstream into south-central WI/northern IL, the impact of morning
convection is still evident, with relatively strong MLCINH
persisting per recent mesoanalyses and low-level stratus increasing
in recent visible imagery. Ongoing storms may tend to struggle with
time as they move eastward, especially given the relatively limited
large-scale ascent as the primary vorticity maxima move
northeastward away from the area. Low-level warm advection may
promote an increase in storm coverage later this evening, though
this scenario remains somewhat uncertain. 

Meanwhile, across eastern IA, storm coverage remains uncertain into
this evening, though with a conditionally favorable environment in
place, watch issuance remains possible to the southwest of WW 424 if
additional intense thunderstorm development appears imminent.

..Dean/Goss.. 08/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41819038 41519153 41449218 41559250 41779269 41919247
            42819117 43648959 43388865 42838860 42298937 41819038

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 10, 7:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCKankakee5 hr
Aug 11, 1:20 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBureau, Ford, Fulton, Grundy, Henry, Iroquois and 15 more115 min
Aug 11, 4:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams86 min
Aug 11, 6:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Cass, Fulton, Hancock, Henderson and 12 more2 hr
Aug 11, 8:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBureau, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy and 13 more86 min
Aug 11, 8:52 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee and 6 more4 hr
Aug 11, 9:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Lake and 1 more83 min
Aug 11, 3:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Hancock, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess, Mercer and 2 more3 hr
Aug 11, 11:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee117 min
Aug 11, 12:17 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Clayton8 hr
Aug 10, 7:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCManitowoc, Racine, Sheboygan63 min
Aug 11, 7:27 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarron, Buffalo, Burnett, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire and 8 more2 hr
Aug 11, 2:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Crawford, Dodge and 20 more88 min
Aug 11, 6:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMilwaukee, Racine90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.