Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
653 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are ongoing at most all sites this evening. Those
experiencing storms may see conditions drop to MVFR and IFR this
evening before improving. Stratus and rain/storms will linger more
overnight tonight than has been the case through this week. This
will lead to additional MVFR to IFR conditions overnight into
tomorrow. As storms move out, conditions should improve back to
VFR through the late afternoon into the evening hours. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight & Thursday...

Rest of this afternoon-tonight: Expect this line of convection
that is propagating through the area to continue to move SE & some
potential for isolated severe wind gusts to linger through early
this evening. As the broad upper trough slowly moves east into the
Mid-MS Valley & Tennessee Valley, moist low-level flow in the
cloud bearing layer will remain elevated with a deep warm cloud
layer & favorable winds for backbuilding/training convection. This
will keep the best Theta E confluence axis across areas along & N
of Interstate 20 corridor. HREF suite of guidance has somewhat of
less of a handle on QPF axis from redeveloping along any remnant
boundaries overnight, but seems to be a little further S & W than
the NW Delta that has no threshold for any rain. Due to this,
expanded the Elevated SW into NE LA & also into southern parts of
the Golden Triangle for some continued training from today & into
Thursday. Also expanded the Limited into the Interstate 20
corridor. Due to this, will expand the Flash Flood Watch for one
tier of parishes in LA as there is some support for higher QPF
swaths in this region. Best timing looks to be near or after
midnight in redevelopment & could extend this potential through
around midday Thursday. With widespread cloudiness & rain chances,
persistence for above normal lows similar to last night is
expected. A strong storm can't be ruled out overnight but less
likely with less diurnal heating.

Thursday: As the mid-level ridging builds over W Texas & trough
axis builds east into the Appalachians, expect westerly low-level
flow to remain, with N-NW flow aloft. There will remain sufficient
deep moisture & perturbed flow aloft for another afternoon of
scattered-numerous rain & storms. The axis will gradually shift
more E-NE the next couple of days. With low-level bulk shear
becoming lighter, decreasing lapse rates, severe potential will
become more mesoscale driven, such as low-level bowing segment
orientation. Due to this, will hold off on any mention of severe
for now & reevaluate the microburst/cold pool potential. However,
isolated stronger storms with a rouge severe storm or so can't be
ruled out. With sufficient low-level Theta E/moisture transport in
the Hwy 82 corridor & N of Interstate 20, kept the Flash Flood
Watch in effect through 18Z Thursday. Any additional rainfall,
especially across the NW Delta & Hwy 82 corridor, will lead to
areas of flash flooding, with significant flash flooding
possible. Kept same changes in the HWO/FFA to expand the areas of
both & extend the FFA in time, as mentioned before. /DC/

Thursday night through next Wednesday...

For the period Thursday night through Wednesday, we are beginning
to move out of a moist, warm, and widespread convective pattern
throughout the weekend and into a drier, ridging pattern. Cooler
and drier air could return as a cold front potentially makes it
into or through the area between Tuesday and Thursday, allowing
for a comfortable mid- week.

Cyclonic flow and the influence of daytime heating on Friday will
allow vertical motion to increase, allowing for some afternoon
convection extending into the central part of our area, but as the
evening progresses, air in the mid levels will temporarily dry out
and allow for a dry period in the overnight hours of Friday into
Saturday morning. The Heat Index on Saturday is a something to note,
with heat indices approaching 100, particularly in the Delta region.
With the amplifying pattern on Saturday supporting more of a
northwesterly/north type flow regime, we may see ingredients align
to support the production of a MCS on Saturday. Model guidance is
variable in agreement, so there is still uncertainty of timing and
location. This is something to keep an eye on the next couple of
model runs. Rain chances will also vary and be general due to these
uncertainties.

The low levels will remain relatively moist, until cool air begins
to creep down following the exit of a trough axis to the east and
the entrance of a ridging pattern roughly by midweek, which will
bring drier air, especially in the mid and upper levels. As we move
from Tuesday into Wednesday, there is a growing consensus of a cold
front and a trough axis to our east, which could bring noticeably
drier and cooler air. /AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  89  72  89 /  55  39  17  17
Meridian      72  87  71  89 /  44  48  26  27
Vicksburg     75  90  74  91 /  56  32  15  12
Hattiesburg   74  89  72  91 /  17  24   5  17
Natchez       75  89  71  89 /  20  15   5   8
Greenville    74  86  74  89 /  79  76  34  18
Greenwood     73  84  74  89 /  82  81  50  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ007>009.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ074-075.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-102015-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...This afternoon through Thursday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible the rest of this afternoon through
early this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

This afternoon through Thursday, additional heavy rainfall over
areas that experienced flooding Tuesday is expected the rest of
this afternoon through midday Thursday. Widespread flash flooding
is likely and significant flooding is possible. Many roads will be
flooded or closed. Some structural flooding is likely and water
rescues are possible. Minor to moderate river flooding will also
be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ007>009-MSZ027>033-035-036-040-041-102015-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon through Thursday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible the rest of this afternoon through
early this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

This afternoon through Thursday, additional heavy rainfall the
rest of this afternoon through midday Thursday will likely lead to
areas of flash flooding. Some roads may become flooded or closed.
Some structures may be threatened by high water. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ015-016-MSZ037>039-042>045-047-102015-
Richland-Madison LA-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Warren-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Thursday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible the rest of this afternoon through
early this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

This afternoon through Thursday, one to three inches of rain in a
short amount of time may lead to localized flash flooding,
especially in low lying and urban areas, the rest of this
afternoon through midday Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ025-MSZ046-048>059-062>066-072-073-102015-
Tensas-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible the rest of this afternoon through
early this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ023-024-026-MSZ060-061-074-102015-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-Forrest-
303 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MSZ051-052-056>058-100000-
Smith MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON...
EASTERN SMITH...NORTHERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 610 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Savoy to near Pineville. Movement
was southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Savoy and Zero around 620 PM CDT.
  Sable around 640 PM CDT.
  Bay Springs, Stonewall and Turnerville around 645 PM CDT.
  Middleton around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Sylvarena, Pachuta,
Chunky, Montrose, Louin and Hickory.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8939 3216 8948 3244 8872 3215 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 335DEG 14KT 3231 8875 3210 8937

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
626 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MSZ042-047-100000-
Warren MS-Yazoo MS-
626 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND
SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Oak Ridge, or near Redwood, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Oak Ridge around 640 PM CDT.
  Youngton and Flowers around 655 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 9079 3257 9073 3265 9066 3255 9049
      3252 9051 3252 9052 3250 9052 3250 9058
      3248 9061 3244 9059 3237 9064 3234 9063
      3235 9069 3234 9071 3230 9070 3226 9072
      3249 9086 3251 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 313DEG 16KT 3252 9074

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
645 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N RALEIGH             32.06N 89.53W
06/09/2021                   SMITH              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN ROOF BLOWN OFF A BARN, ALONG WITH A
            COUPLE OF TREES SNAPPED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MSZ056>058-065-066-100045-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
659 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN
SMITH...CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND NORTHERN JONES COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Snell to Barnett to near
Taylorsville. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Heidelberg, Barnett, Snell, Stafford Springs and Sykes around 705
  PM CDT.
  Goodwater around 710 PM CDT.
  Stringer and De Soto around 725 PM CDT.
  Hebron around 735 PM CDT.
  Moss around 745 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Shubuta, Mize and
Soso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 8848 3184 8875 3183 8894 3176 8897
      3162 8951 3190 8957 3199 8895 3222 8847
      3220 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 311DEG 17KT 3215 8850 3196 8890 3188 8944

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
747 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MSZ055>057-065-066-100130-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-Simpson MS-Jasper MS-
747 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN
SIMPSON...SOUTHERN SMITH...NORTHERN COVINGTON AND NORTHERN JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Sanatorium to near Stafford Springs.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Sandersville around 750 PM CDT.
  Mill Creek around 805 PM CDT.
  Mount Olive around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Mize and Soso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 8894 3165 8894 3172 8976 3177 8976
      3177 8978 3194 8986 3185 8891 3183 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 326DEG 16KT 3190 8979 3182 8892

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
800 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

MSZ048-049-054-055-100145-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
800 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN...
NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON...SOUTH CENTRAL HINDS AND EASTERN COPIAH
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Terry, or 7 miles northeast of Crystal Springs, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Crystal Springs around 815 PM CDT.
  Hopewell around 830 PM CDT.
  Harrisville around 835 PM CDT.
  Union around 845 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Georgetown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3204 9045 3218 9015 3194 8991 3175 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 335DEG 17KT 3207 9028

NF