Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING IN
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today:

Significant flash flooding has occurred across northern portions
of the Interstate 55 corridor, with some of this gradually
propagating westward into the ArkLaMiss Delta. Rainfall totals per
MRMS/radar have ranged from a widespread 3-6 inches north of
Interstate 20 to 6-10 inches, with locally higher amounts, over
the last 12-24 hours across Grenada, Leflore, Carroll, Attala &
Holmes Counties. This has led to ongoing widespread & significant
flash flooding, which will continue into the afternoon hours.

Synoptic & sfc analysis indicate mid-level ridge over W Texas,
while less intense cold core low is situated over the
Appalachians/Ohio Valley. This has led to continued persistent
wet pattern with tropical moisture, westerly winds in deep warm
cloud layer of 14kft & westerly confluent low-level Theta E feed
of nearly 340-345K. With a persistent synoptic/low-level pattern,
expect most rainfall to remain focused on low-level confluent
moisture feed. HRRR has been handling the mesoscale rainfall
totals/banding the best. Flash flooding potential will slowly
migrate to the W/SW into the Delta through the day. Based on what
rainfall occurred & anticipated additional rainfall, made some
adjustments to the HWO to expand the Significant slightly further
S & W to account for the convective backbuilding. Also pulled the
Elevated threat a tier of counties S to account for ongoing
flooding & better match up with the Flash Flood Watch. Kept it
maintained through 00Z. Also adjusted QPF higher due to the much
more efficient morning rainfall.

For severe threat, diurnal heating/insolation will be limited due
to widespread cloudiness. Due to that & lapse rates in low-
levels less & some decrease aloft in lapse rates/shear, dropped
the severe threat mention today. However, isolated stronger
storms with a rouge severe storm or so can't be ruled out,
especially SW of the heavy rainfall swath in NE LA & W & S
MS. Updates are out. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight:

Showers and storms that developed overnight mostly north of I-20
will continue through today, posing a continued threat for flash
flooding. These storms should become more widely scattered by
afternoon and evening and the flash flood threat should diminish,
though localized flooding will still be possible in areas that
experience heavy thunderstorm downpours. Highs today may be held
down a bit due to scattered showers and convective cloud debris.
Look for temperatures this afternoon to rise into the upper 80s F
to near 90 F for most, though the areas north of I-20 that
experience longer duration rains may be held to the mid 80s F.

Later tonight, we finally begin to dry out some with only lingering
showers remaining. The upper trough that has been responsible for
the exceptionally rainy weather the past week will have moved just
east of us by late tonight and should result in sufficient upper
confluence to somewhat reduce rain chances heading toward Friday.
Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s F. /86/

Friday through Wednesday:

The generally slow-progressing upper-level trough and persistent
upper-level low pressure system will continue to break down Friday
into Saturday, with the overall flow pattern amplifying and a
strengthening ridge of high pressure taking shape along the spine
of the Rockies. Downstream from this ridge, southward moving
shortwave troughs will ripple through the upper-level flow and
reinforce the southward advancement of a more continental (rather
than tropical) air mass into our region through the middle of next
week. Friday will probably be the last of our days with the
tropical-like rainfall in the region, and northeast Mississippi
has the greatest chance for heavy rainfall to train along the west
side of the departing low. Lingering humidity through Sunday, and
the increasing influence of heating to our west will result in
some potential for dangerous heat conditions to develop in our
area, but there is enough uncertainty with rain chances still in
the forecast that I don't have high confidence for areas of 105+
heat index yet. We will monitor this with future forecast updates
though. Humidity and rain chances will be pushed south toward and
along the Gulf Coast Monday through Wednesday, and POPs were
nudged toward a drier and more confined area similar to the
consensus of deterministic guidance. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
While most sites are prevailing VFR, intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions with both low ceilings and low visibilities will
continue to occur through the period due to increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Near thunderstorms, high wind shear
and microbursts will be possible. By tonight, some decrease in
storm coverage is likely with mostly VFR conditions prevailing
except near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  72  88  74 /  71  32  26   7
Meridian      86  71  87  71 /  71  42  51  17
Vicksburg     91  74  90  74 /  68  25  12   5
Hattiesburg   91  72  92  74 /  39  21  21   7
Natchez       90  71  89  73 /  27  13  11   5
Greenville    84  74  89  73 /  88  46  32  12
Greenwood     84  74  87  73 /  94  62  59  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-034-110815-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Washington-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Early this morning through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms
could produce damaging wind gusts and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible. Many roads could be flooded or closed and some
structural flooding and water rescues are likely. Minor to
moderate river flooding will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through tonight.

MSZ027>033-036-110815-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ007>009-MSZ035-040-041-110815-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Early this morning through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms
could produce damaging wind gusts and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through tonight.

LAZ015-110815-
Richland-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Early this morning through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms
could produce damaging wind gusts and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through tonight.

LAZ016-MSZ037>039-042>045-047-110815-
Madison LA-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Warren-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ023>026-MSZ046-048>066-072>074-110815-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ025-026-110815-
Leflore-Grenada-
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Widespread flash flooding is likely and significant flooding is
possible. Many roads could be flooded or closed and some
structural flooding and water rescues are likely. Minor to
moderate river flooding will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

86

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1101 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.43W
06/10/2021                   CHICOT             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE STREETS FLOODED IN DERMOTT.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1113 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENWOOD               33.52N 90.19W
06/10/2021                   LEFLORE            MS   STORM CHASER

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE COVERED WITH WATER.
            SEVERAL CARS HAVE STALLED WITH SOME RESCUES
            HAVING TO TAKE PLACE.

&&

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.43W
06/10/2021                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUGHLY 15 ROADS IN TOWN FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1208 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE HESTERVILLE        33.15N 89.64W
06/10/2021                   ATTALA             MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF WATER FLOODING HWY 35
            N IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1211 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE RULEVILLE         33.73N 90.55W
06/10/2021                   SUNFLOWER          MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HWY 49 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1218 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DURANT                  33.08N 89.86W
06/10/2021                   HOLMES             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL STREETS COVERED WITH WATER
            PREVENTING ACCESS. WATER IS GETTING CLOSE TO
            HOMES.

&&

FB