Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The line of showers and thunderstorms that have brought a round of
severe weather and torrential flooding rainfall. The severe threat
looks to exit the forecast area by 8 PM tonight with the
expiration of the ongoing Tornado Watch. However, ongoing flooding
issues may continue with heavy runoff and another half inch of
rain expected behind the main line of storms. A Flash Flood Watch
will continue through Friday morning with several reports of
severe flooding ongoing in north Georgia.

As heavy rain filters out and isolated light showers move into
the area behind them the colder air moving in behind the front
will lead to possible snow showers and flurries across north
Georgia Friday morning. Accumulations around an inch may be
possible on western slopes in the Georgia Blue Ridge mountains.
Further flurries may continue on Saturday morning as well with
another brief round of lighter rainfall.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Given ongoing severe weather today only tweeks were made to the
extended forecast. The previous discussion follows...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020/

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will cont to push
through the fcst area with a wide variety of svr wx and heavy rain
following. CIGS are very spotty at the moment, but expecting MVFR
to dominate through most of the TAF period with IFR possible
around the ATL sites between 22-06Z tonight. A mix of IFR/MVFR
VSBYS also likely with periods of heavy rain. Strong gusty SSW
winds ahead of the storms will transition to breezy west winds
tonight before strengthening again tomorrow morning with gusts up
to 25kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on winds.
Low to Medium confidence on CIGS.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  46  32  51 /  90  10  10  30
Atlanta         38  44  33  53 /  90  20  20  30
Blairsville     32  38  28  45 /  90  50  20  30
Cartersville    35  43  31  52 /  60  30  20  30
Columbus        40  49  36  60 /  90  20  20  20
Gainesville     38  43  32  48 /  90  20  20  30
Macon           42  50  34  58 / 100  10  10  20
Rome            36  43  32  52 /  40  30  20  30
Peachtree City  38  47  32  56 /  90  20  20  30
Vidalia         46  52  36  61 / 100   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...
Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Sumter...Taliaferro...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Tornado Watch In Effect For Portions of Central and Eastern
Georgia Southwest Portions of the Forecast Area extending
southeast of a line from Columbus to Peachtree City, to
Lawrenceville, to Danielsville, until 8 PM tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes will continue to sweep through
portions of central and eastern Georgia. For this area, be
prepared for possible Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings,
and be ready to take appropriate actions if necessary.

In addition to the severe storm potential, a Flash Flood Watch is
in effect for the entire forecast area through 7 AM Friday
morning as torrential rainfall will allow an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain. Heavy rain will quickly elevate the flood
potential across the area, especially in the higher terrain of
north Georgia, urban areas, low-lying areas, and small creeks and
streams. Please do not attempt to drive through flooded roadways;
Turn Around, Don't Drown!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through Friday morning across
north and central Georgia. Flooding will continue well after the
rain ends in urban areas, low-lying areas, and small creeks and
streams.

Light rain and snow mix will be possible across far north Georgia
on Friday morning and Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
terrain. Little to no accumulations are anticipated at this time
for Friday but this could change with subsequent forecasts. A
dusting to less than a half an inch could be realized for the
Saturday system across the Northeast mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information today for possible
activation across portions of north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MOUNT BETHEL        33.97N  84.46W
02/06/2020                   COBB               GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SEWELL MILL CREEK IS FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAY NEAR
            ROBINSON FARM COURT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000132

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
242 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ083-084-095>097-105-107-109-062015-
Wilkinson GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
242 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON...
NORTHEASTERN DOOLY...SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...
BLECKLEY...NORTHWESTERN DODGE...SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS AND PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EST...

At 241 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Jeffersonville to near Magnolia to near
Pinehurst...and moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Jeffersonville, Unadilla,
Chester, Dexter, Dudley, Cadwell, Rentz, Danville, Montrose,
Allentown, Dubois, Hayneville, Browndale, Tarversville, Plainfield
and Empire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3211 8336 3213 8336 3213 8341 3212 8342
      3224 8383 3247 8354 3274 8331 3260 8321
      3248 8284 3224 8309 3210 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 262DEG 37KT 3267 8328 3247 8344 3223 8379

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
244 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE VININGS           33.89N  84.46W
02/06/2020                   COBB               GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            ROTTENWOOD CREEK TRAIL IS FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000133

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
248 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N WINSTON             33.75N  84.83W
02/06/2020                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AT CEDAR MOUNTAIN RD AND
            BRITTAIN RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000134

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW DANIEL SPRINGS    33.65N  82.99W
02/06/2020                   GREENE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOWING WATER CAUSED DAMAGE TO BETHESDA CHURCH ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000135

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ095-096-105>108-062045-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Wilcox GA-Bleckley GA-Pulaski GA-
312 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRISP...EASTERN
DOOLY...SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...NORTHWESTERN WILCOX...SOUTHWESTERN
BLECKLEY AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EST...

At 312 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Elko to Fort Early...and moving northeast at 65
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cordele, Cochran, Hawkinsville, Vienna, Unadilla, Pineview,
Pinehurst, Browndale, Richwood, Mobley Crossing, Mock Springs,
Baileys Park, Seville, Finleyson, Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area,
Pleasant View, Paulk, Tippettville, Raines and Wenona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3185 8394 3229 8375 3246 8330 3229 8333
      3225 8337 3223 8336 3197 8355 3184 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 232DEG 58KT 3229 8368 3186 8392

WIND...50MPH