Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1109 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.UPDATE...

Tornado Watches will continue for the Atlanta Metro and portions
of the Southwest forecast area until 1 PM, and for portions of
the East Central forecast area until 5 PM. A Flash Flood Watch
will also continue through 7 AM for the entire forecast area with
several Flash Flood and River Flood Warnings continuing for North
Georgia for the next several hours with multiple reports of swift
water rescues throughout the morning. Flooded roadways are proving
to be very dangerous and there are widespread road closures across
North Georgia. We'd like to remind all that when encountering
flooded roadways to play it safe and Turn Around, Don't Drown!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms moving NE across
the region this morning. Main upper trough moving east through the
plains states this morning keeping the southeastern US in deep moist
southwesterly flow. This flow is bringing ample Gulf moisture and
rounds of heavy rainfall with increased thunderstorm chances mainly
Today. The main surface frontal boundary will push into NW GA over
the next few hours and continue to move southeast through tonight.
Strong to severe convection potential continues Today given ample
shear and some higher instability expected especially across central
portions of the state. Main threat continues to be damaging winds,
though with some decent HREF probabilities of sig tor params greater
than 3, there is the potential for some brief tornado spin ups this
afternoon. QPF showing highest values expected mainly across west
and central GA today with 2 to 3 more inches expected on top of the 1
to 2 inches that has already fallen. Have continued the Flash Flood
watch which includes all of north and central GA.

Other item to watch is the strong Cold air advection pushing in
behind this system tonight/Fri morning along with a slug of enhanced
moisture across N GA. Temps will dip down into the lower 30s and
with fairly steep cooling/lapse rates and decent saturation below
700 mb have continued with a rain snow mix mainly across N GA. Some
light accumulations cannot be ruled out especially in the higher
elevations. Temps Friday will rise into the 40s and 50s.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/...

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
No major changes made from the 06z TAFs. Showers Rain will
continue to increase across the area today with ceilings ranging
between IFR and MVFR through the period. Rain will begin to
diminish after 00z Friday. Winds will stay out of the SW to W in
the 8-12kt range and will begin to see gust around 20-22kt later
this afternoon. As the main frontal boundary swings through the
area will see thunderstorms across the state. Should see TSRA
between 14z and 17z for the ATL area TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  40  46  32 / 100  90  10   5
Atlanta         68  38  44  33 / 100  80  20   5
Blairsville     64  33  38  28 / 100  80  40   5
Cartersville    67  35  44  31 / 100  80  30   5
Columbus        70  40  49  36 / 100  80  10   5
Gainesville     67  38  43  32 / 100  90  20   5
Macon           71  42  50  34 / 100  90   5   5
Rome            67  36  44  31 / 100  70  20   5
Peachtree City  69  38  47  33 / 100  80  20   5
Vidalia         75  47  53  36 /  90 100   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tornado Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for the following
zones: Bibb...Butts...Chattahoochee...Clayton...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dooly...Fayette...Gwinnett...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Lamar...Macon...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Muscogee...North Fulton...Peach...Pike...
Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taylor...Troup...Upson...Webster.

Tornado Watch until 5 PM EST this afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Clarke...Greene...Hancock...
Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Madison...Morgan...Newton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Putnam...Rockdale...Taliaferro...Walton...Warren...
Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1052 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1052 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Tornado Watches In Effect For Southwest Portions of the
Forecast Area and the Atlanta Metro Until 1PM And East Central
Portions of the Forecast Area Until 5PM...

A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing severe
weather today including damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
will continue to sweep through portions of central and eastern
Georgia.

In addition to the severe storm potential, torrential
rainfall will allow an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain to fall
over areas already saturated from previous rains. With heavy rains
expected to continue, the Flash Flood Watch remains for north and
central Georgia until 7 AM Friday morning. Heavy rain will
quickly elevate the flood potential across the area, especially in
the higher terrain of north Georgia, urban areas, low-lying
areas, and small creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through Friday morning across
north and central Georgia. Flooding will continue well after the
rain ends in urban areas, low-lying areas, and small creeks and
streams.

Light rain and snow mix will be possible across far north Georgia
on Friday morning and Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
terrain. Little to no accumulations are anticipated at this time
for Friday but this could change with subsequent forecasts. A
dusting to less than a half an inch could be realized for the
Saturday system across the Northeast mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information today for possible
activation across portions of north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1139 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E BIRMINGHAM          34.17N  84.28W
02/06/2020                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PORTIONS OF WESTBROOK ROAD HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000126

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1142 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE ACWORTH           34.03N  84.67W
02/06/2020                   COBB               GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER IS FLOWING OVER LORING RD NEAR BUTLER CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000127

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1208 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ037-048>050-058>060-061745-
Butts GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Jasper GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-Newton GA-
1208 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BUTTS...MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM...JASPER...NORTHERN GREENE...SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EST...

At 1208 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Turtle Cove, or near
Monticello...moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Madison, Greensboro, Monticello, Rutledge, Newborn, Flovilla,
Mansfield, Woodville, Shady Dale, Buckhead, Turtle Cove, Wrayswood,
Godfrey, Hard Labor Creek State Park, Greshamville, Central Georgia
Experiment Stn, Calvin, Farrar, Eudora and Carey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3367 8305 3320 8377 3327 8392 3369 8361
      3374 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 226DEG 70KT 3333 8378

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1211 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW LUMPKIN           34.35N  84.07W
02/06/2020                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE STRUCTURES ALONG PINEBRIDGE DRIVE IMPACTED BY
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000128

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W DOUGHERTY           34.38N  84.08W
02/06/2020                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING IMPACTING STRUCTURES ALONG THOMPSON RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000129

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1216 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 AM     FLOOD            DAWSONVILLE             34.42N  84.12W
02/06/2020                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED DUE TO SLOW DRAINAGE.
            ROADS/INTERSECTIONS INCLUDE: HIGHWAY 9S/SPORTING HILL
            DRIVE, HWY 36W/GOLD CREEK DRIVE, JACK HEARD RD,
            AMICAOLOA CHURCH RD, FLAT CREEK DR, HUGH STOWERS RD AT
            ETOWAH RIVER, HARRY SOSEBEE RD, KILOUGH CHURCH RD AND
            ODUM CHUMBLEY RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000130

NLIST