Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms moving NE across
the region this morning. Main upper trough moving east through the
plains states this morning keeping the southeastern US in deep moist
southwesterly flow. This flow is bringing ample Gulf moisture and
rounds of heavy rainfall with increased thunderstorm chances mainly
Today. The main surface frontal boundary will push into NW GA over
the next few hours and continue to move southeast through tonight.
Strong to severe convection potential continues Today given ample
shear and some higher instability expected especially across central
portions of the state. Main threat continues to be damaging winds,
though with some decent HREF probabilities of sig tor params greater
than 3, there is the potential for some brief tornado spin ups this
afternoon. QPF showing highest values expected mainly across west
and central GA today with 2 to 3 more inches expected on top of the 1
to 2 inches that has already fallen. Have continued the Flash Flood
watch which includes all of north and central GA.

Other item to watch is the strong Cold air advection pushing in
behind this system tonight/Fri morning along with a slug of enhanced
moisture across N GA. Temps will dip down into the lower 30s and
with fairly steep cooling/lapse rates and decent saturation below
700 mb have continued with a rain snow mix mainly across N GA. Some
light accumulations cannot be ruled out especially in the higher
elevations. Temps Friday will rise into the 40s and 50s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/...

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
rain will continue to increase across the area today with ceilings
ranging between IFR and MVFR through the period. Rain will begin
to diminish after 00z Friday. Winds will stay out of the SW to W
in the 8-12kt range and will begin to see gust around 20-22kt
later this afternoon. As the main frontal boundary swings through
the area will see thunderstorms across the state. Should see TSRA
between 14z and 18z for the ATL area TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  40  46  32 / 100  90  10   5
Atlanta         68  38  44  33 / 100  80  20   5
Blairsville     64  33  38  28 / 100  80  40   5
Cartersville    67  35  44  31 / 100  80  30   5
Columbus        70  40  49  36 / 100  80  10   5
Gainesville     67  38  43  32 / 100  90  20   5
Macon           71  42  50  34 / 100  90   5   5
Rome            67  36  44  31 / 100  70  20   5
Peachtree City  69  38  47  33 / 100  80  20   5
Vidalia         75  47  53  36 /  90 100   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...01

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ002-011-012-019-060815-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
234 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...SOUTHWESTERN
WALKER...SOUTHWESTERN GORDON AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EST...

At 234 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Yellow Creek Falls, or
near Cedar Bluff...moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Lafayette, Summerville, Trion, Plainville, Lyerly, Menlo,
Naomi, Center Post, Oostanaula, Subligna, Suttles Mill, Tidings,
Armuchee, Lake Marvin, Linwood, Coosa, Cloudland, Berryton and
Chattoogaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3481 8532 3442 8493 3421 8545 3462 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 240DEG 52KT 3426 8570

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ002>007-012-060900-
Gilmer GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Murray GA-
Fannin GA-
309 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER...WHITFIELD...CATOOSA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...GORDON...MURRAY AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 400
AM EST...

At 309 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Mill Creek, or 7 miles
southwest of Dalton...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Calhoun, Chatsworth, Ringgold, Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Varnell,
Eton, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta, East Ellijay, Resaca, Ranger, Crandall,
Jones Mill, Cohutta Wilderness, Beaverdale, Pisgah, Villanow and
Cherry Log.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8449 3472 8416 3455 8460 3455 8465
      3453 8465 3441 8495 3454 8508 3459 8507
      3459 8512 3480 8533 3499 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0809Z 240DEG 49KT 3469 8505

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ002-011-012-019-061015-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
443 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...SOUTHEASTERN
WALKER...WESTERN GORDON AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM EST...

At 443 AM EST...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Howells Crossroads, or near Forney...moving
northeast at 70 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and increased chance of a brief
           tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light...unsecured objects...this
           storm has also exhibited localized rotation. A brief
           tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Summerville, Trion, Plainville, Shannon, Lyerly, Pinson,
Oostanaula, Subligna, Suttles Mill, Tidings, Armuchee, Lake Marvin,
Coosa, Villanow, Berryton, Sugar Valley, Chattoogaville, Everett
Springs and James H. Floyd State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3453 8547 3471 8508 3467 8505 3462 8505
      3461 8500 3440 8500 3436 8501 3436 8502
      3425 8503 3411 8542 3427 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 239DEG 60KT 3415 8550

WIND...50MPH