River Flood Warning 52, NWS Atlanta, GA

858 
WGUS82 KFFC 062111
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
411 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Chattanooga Creek near Flintstone affecting Walker County

  Allatoona Creek near Mars Hill affecting Cobb County

  Sope Creek near Marietta affecting Cobb County

 
GAC295-062141-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-200206T2111Z/
/CCFG1.1.ER.200206T1609Z.200206T1900Z.200206T2010Z.UU/
411 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chattanooga Creek near Flintstone.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until Wednesday December 31.
* At 345 PM Thursday the stage was 9.9 feet, and falling.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8533 3501 8526 3488 8534 3491 8541


$$

GAC067-062141-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-200206T2111Z/
/MAHG1.1.ER.200206T1441Z.200206T1730Z.200206T2011Z.UU/
411 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Allatoona Creek near Mars Hill.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until Wednesday December 31.
* At 345 PM Thursday the stage was 12.9 feet, and falling.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* Between 11 and 13 feet, bankfull conditions occur upstream and 
  downstream from the gage located on Stilesboro Road.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8467 3396 8474 3405 8474 3405 8468 3399 8465


$$

GAC067-062141-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-200206T2111Z/
/MARG1.1.ER.200206T1535Z.200206T1830Z.200206T2016Z.NO/
411 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Sope Creek near Marietta.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until Wednesday December 31.
* At 345 PM Thursday the stage was 11.3 feet, and falling.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* Between 10 and 12 feet, bankfull conditions occur upstream and 
  downstream from the gage on Lower Roswell Road. Water remains in low 
  areas of the flood plain, including portions of the Indian Hills 
  Golf Course.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8449 3397 8442 3395 8440 3391 8446


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms moving NE across
the region this morning. Main upper trough moving east through the
plains states this morning keeping the southeastern US in deep moist
southwesterly flow. This flow is bringing ample Gulf moisture and
rounds of heavy rainfall with increased thunderstorm chances mainly
Today. The main surface frontal boundary will push into NW GA over
the next few hours and continue to move southeast through tonight.
Strong to severe convection potential continues Today given ample
shear and some higher instability expected especially across central
portions of the state. Main threat continues to be damaging winds,
though with some decent HREF probabilities of sig tor params greater
than 3, there is the potential for some brief tornado spin ups this
afternoon. QPF showing highest values expected mainly across west
and central GA today with 2 to 3 more inches expected on top of the 1
to 2 inches that has already fallen. Have continued the Flash Flood
watch which includes all of north and central GA.

Other item to watch is the strong Cold air advection pushing in
behind this system tonight/Fri morning along with a slug of enhanced
moisture across N GA. Temps will dip down into the lower 30s and
with fairly steep cooling/lapse rates and decent saturation below
700 mb have continued with a rain snow mix mainly across N GA. Some
light accumulations cannot be ruled out especially in the higher
elevations. Temps Friday will rise into the 40s and 50s.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/...

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
No major changes made from the 06z TAFs. Showers Rain will
continue to increase across the area today with ceilings ranging
between IFR and MVFR through the period. Rain will begin to
diminish after 00z Friday. Winds will stay out of the SW to W in
the 8-12kt range and will begin to see gust around 20-22kt later
this afternoon. As the main frontal boundary swings through the
area will see thunderstorms across the state. Should see TSRA
between 14z and 17z for the ATL area TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  40  46  32 / 100  90  10   5
Atlanta         68  38  44  33 / 100  80  20   5
Blairsville     64  33  38  28 / 100  80  40   5
Cartersville    67  35  44  31 / 100  80  30   5
Columbus        70  40  49  36 / 100  80  10   5
Gainesville     67  38  43  32 / 100  90  20   5
Macon           71  42  50  34 / 100  90   5   5
Rome            67  36  44  31 / 100  70  20   5
Peachtree City  69  38  47  33 / 100  80  20   5
Vidalia         75  47  53  36 /  90 100   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tornado Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for the following
zones: Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dooly...Fayette...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Houston...Lamar...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Muscogee...Peach...Pike...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Upson...Webster.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Tornado Watch In Effect Until 1PM For Southwest Portions of the
Area...

Showers with occasional thunderstorms will be capable of
producing severe weather today including damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes, mainly across portions of west and southwest
Georgia. In addition to the severe storm potential, torrential
rainfall will allow an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain to fall
over areas that have already received in excess of an inch
overnight.

With these periods of very heavy rain expected to continue, the
Flash Flood Watch remains for north and central Georgia. Heavy
rain will quickly elevate the flood potential across the area,
especially in the higher terrain of north Georgia, urban areas,
low-lying areas, and small creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through Friday morning across
north and central Georgia. Flooding will continue well after the
rain ends.

Light rain and snow mix will be possible across far north Georgia
on Friday morning and Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
terrain. Little to no accumulations are anticipated at this time
for Friday but this could change with subsequent forecasts. A
dusting to less than a half an inch could be realized for the
Saturday system across the Northeast mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information today for possible
activation across portions of north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
917 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE SUMMERVILLE        34.49N  85.34W
02/06/2020                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURING ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH MULTIPLE
            ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000114

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
923 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ021-022-031>033-042>045-052-053-055-061500-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-Cherokee GA-Coweta GA-
Carroll GA-DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-Heard GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
923 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...DOUGLAS...COBB...
NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...WESTERN COWETA...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN DEKALB...SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH...
HEARD...SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING AND SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM
EST...

At 922 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall was along a line extending from Union Hill to near Lithia
Springs to Big Springs...and moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain will exasperate
           ongoing flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Marietta, Newnan, Douglasville, Carrollton, Canton, Decatur,
Cumming, Franklin, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta,
Smyrna, Dunwoody, East Point, Milton, Kennesaw, Woodstock and Union
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3376 8484 3421 8450 3424 8406 3403 8413
      3403 8417 3399 8419 3400 8424 3396 8428
      3387 8419 3380 8421 3353 8455 3352 8459
      3347 8462 3325 8489 3326 8526 3337 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 248DEG 37KT 3418 8438 3377 8469 3326 8531

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
937 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ027-036>038-047-049-061515-
Madison GA-Morgan GA-Walton GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
937 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHERN
MORGAN...EASTERN WALTON...NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE AND OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EST...

At 937 AM EST...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over North High Shoals, or near Watkinsville...
moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and increased chance of a brief
           tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light...unsecured objects...this
           storm has also exhibited localized rotation. A brief
           tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, Danielsville, Athens, Comer, Winterville, North High
Shoals, Colbert, Arnoldsville, Bishop, Hull, Athens-Clarke County,
Whitehall, Diamond Hill, Smithonia, Beechwood Hills, Eastville,
Paoli, Dunlap, State Botanical Garden Of Ga and Barretts Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3376 8354 3381 8359 3413 8323 3414 8309
      3396 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 225DEG 52KT 3381 8350

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
943 AM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE ADAIRSVILLE       34.38N 84.91W
02/06/2020  M52 MPH          BARTOW             GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GA327 1.5 E ADAIRSVILLE.

0835 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW ATLANTA MOTOR SPE 33.39N 84.33W
02/06/2020  M48 MPH          HENRY              GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KHMP 0.9 NW ATLANTA MOTOR
            SPEEDWAY (NWS/FAA).

0830 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LAWRENCEVILLE     33.98N 83.97W
02/06/2020  M43 MPH          GWINNETT           GA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KLZU LAWRENCEVILLE.

0830 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW PERRY              32.47N 83.74W
02/06/2020  M43 MPH          HOUSTON            GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GA347 I-75 @ SR 7.

0830 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW PERRY              32.47N 83.74W
02/06/2020  M42 MPH          HOUSTON            GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GA347 1.0 NW PERRY.

0935 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W SWEETWATER CREEK ST 33.74N 84.68W
02/06/2020  M40 MPH          DOUGLAS            GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DGLOS 3 SSW LITHIA SPRINGS.

0936 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST DOBBINS AIR RESERVE BAS 33.92N 84.52W
02/06/2020  M38 MPH          COBB               GA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KMGE DOBBINS AFB MARI.

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BLAIRSVILLE             34.87N 83.97W
02/06/2020  M38 MPH          UNION              GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GA322 US 76 @ SR11/US19.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1017 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ033-034-044>047-053>055-057-061545-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-
Coweta GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-
1017 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...NORTH FULTON...
NORTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...CLAYTON...NORTHEASTERN COWETA...
DEKALB...SOUTHERN GWINNETT...NORTHWESTERN HENRY AND SOUTH FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM EST...

At 1016 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Lawrenceville to Riverdale...and moving northeast
at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Newnan, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Fayetteville, Conyers,
Jonesboro, Peachtree City, East Point, Stockbridge, Union City,
Forest Park, Snellville, Riverdale, College Park, Fairburn, Lilburn,
Loganville, Chamblee and Doraville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3391 8428 3393 8391 3381 8385 3373 8389
      3374 8392 3371 8391 3371 8393 3369 8392
      3361 8397 3335 8459 3337 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 238DEG 50KT 3396 8394 3357 8443

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ027-061545-
Madison GA-
1036 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL
1045 AM EST...

At 1035 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Ila, or just west of
Danielsville...moving northeast at 70 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Danielsville, Ila and Pocataligo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3421 8309 3418 8310
      3408 8334 3422 8335 3426 8329 3425 8329
      3424 8324 3425 8324 3425 8320 3424 8317
      3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 234DEG 61KT 3414 8331

WIND...50MPH