River Flood Warning 41, NWS Atlanta, GA

621 
WGUS82 KFFC 062322
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
622 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Brushy Fork Creek near Loganville affecting Gwinnett County

 
GAC135-062352-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200206T2322Z/
/LOGG1.1.ER.200206T1339Z.200206T1339Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
622 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Brushy Fork Creek near Loganville.
* This takes effect immediately.
* At 6 PM Thursday the stage was 8.1 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 9 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* At 7 feet, Bankfull conditions are reached upstream and
  downstream from the gage at Beaver Road.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8397 3385 8390 3382 8392 3377 8395 3381 8399


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms moving NE across
the region this morning. Main upper trough moving east through the
plains states this morning keeping the southeastern US in deep moist
southwesterly flow. This flow is bringing ample Gulf moisture and
rounds of heavy rainfall with increased thunderstorm chances mainly
Today. The main surface frontal boundary will push into NW GA over
the next few hours and continue to move southeast through tonight.
Strong to severe convection potential continues Today given ample
shear and some higher instability expected especially across central
portions of the state. Main threat continues to be damaging winds,
though with some decent HREF probabilities of sig tor params greater
than 3, there is the potential for some brief tornado spin ups this
afternoon. QPF showing highest values expected mainly across west
and central GA today with 2 to 3 more inches expected on top of the 1
to 2 inches that has already fallen. Have continued the Flash Flood
watch which includes all of north and central GA.

Other item to watch is the strong Cold air advection pushing in
behind this system tonight/Fri morning along with a slug of enhanced
moisture across N GA. Temps will dip down into the lower 30s and
with fairly steep cooling/lapse rates and decent saturation below
700 mb have continued with a rain snow mix mainly across N GA. Some
light accumulations cannot be ruled out especially in the higher
elevations. Temps Friday will rise into the 40s and 50s.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/...

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
No major changes made from the 06z TAFs. Showers Rain will
continue to increase across the area today with ceilings ranging
between IFR and MVFR through the period. Rain will begin to
diminish after 00z Friday. Winds will stay out of the SW to W in
the 8-12kt range and will begin to see gust around 20-22kt later
this afternoon. As the main frontal boundary swings through the
area will see thunderstorms across the state. Should see TSRA
between 14z and 17z for the ATL area TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  40  46  32 / 100  90  10   5
Atlanta         68  38  44  33 / 100  80  20   5
Blairsville     64  33  38  28 / 100  80  40   5
Cartersville    67  35  44  31 / 100  80  30   5
Columbus        70  40  49  36 / 100  80  10   5
Gainesville     67  38  43  32 / 100  90  20   5
Macon           71  42  50  34 / 100  90   5   5
Rome            67  36  44  31 / 100  70  20   5
Peachtree City  69  38  47  33 / 100  80  20   5
Vidalia         75  47  53  36 /  90 100   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tornado Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for the following
zones: Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...Dooly...Fayette...Haralson...Harris...Heard...
Houston...Lamar...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Muscogee...Peach...Pike...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Upson...Webster.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

...Tornado Watch In Effect Until 1PM For Southwest Portions of the
Area...

Showers with occasional thunderstorms will be capable of
producing severe weather today including damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes, mainly across portions of west and southwest
Georgia. In addition to the severe storm potential, torrential
rainfall will allow an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain to fall
over areas that have already received in excess of an inch
overnight.

With these periods of very heavy rain expected to continue, the
Flash Flood Watch remains for north and central Georgia. Heavy
rain will quickly elevate the flood potential across the area,
especially in the higher terrain of north Georgia, urban areas,
low-lying areas, and small creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through Friday morning across
north and central Georgia. Flooding will continue well after the
rain ends.

Light rain and snow mix will be possible across far north Georgia
on Friday morning and Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
terrain. Little to no accumulations are anticipated at this time
for Friday but this could change with subsequent forecasts. A
dusting to less than a half an inch could be realized for the
Saturday system across the Northeast mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information today for possible
activation across portions of north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW FOLSOM            34.40N  84.84W
02/06/2020                   GORDON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A HOME ALONG EAST PLAINVIEW
            ROAD. POSSIBLY CAUSED BY A TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000110

TV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW TRION             34.55N  85.34W
02/06/2020                   CHATTOOGA          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES AND ROADS CLOSED. WEST TATE ROAD
            NEAR TRION CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000111

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ031-041-042-061330-
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
753 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARALSON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND
SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM EST...

At 752 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was near Tallapoosa, or 9 miles
southwest of Buchanan...moving northeast at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dallas, Buchanan, Villa Rica, Bremen, Temple, Tallapoosa, Mount Zion,
Waco, Yorkville, Eubank Lake, Bowdon Junction, Draketown and New
Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3391 8512 3391 8505 3394 8505 3395 8501
      3395 8498 3397 8497 3392 8483 3378 8489
      3378 8490 3372 8492 3361 8533 3380 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1252Z 240DEG 58KT 3371 8531

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ023>025-034-035-045-061430-
Hall GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
754 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALL...BANKS...
JACKSON...BARROW...NORTHERN DEKALB AND GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM
EST...

At 753 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy
rainfall was along a line extending from Buford to Lakewood
Park...and moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas. Use extreme caution when driving
           this morning and be prepared for possible flash flood
           warnings.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Gainesville, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Winder, Jefferson,
Commerce, Homer, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Snellville, Suwanee, Buford,
Lilburn, Chamblee, Norcross, Doraville, Clarkston, Braselton and
Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3446 8340 3432 8339 3426 8334 3420 8340
      3416 8336 3404 8336 3400 8350 3391 8365
      3389 8376 3393 8380 3380 8396 3368 8435
      3380 8435 3400 8421 3399 8420 3405 8410
      3418 8406 3420 8399 3427 8395 3449 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1253Z 232DEG 65KT 3414 8402 3369 8438

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 AM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AUSTELL                 33.81N  84.63W
02/06/2020                   COBB               GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            RECIEVED A SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTO SHOWING WATER FLOWING
            ACROSS CAROL DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000112

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ013-014-020>022-032-033-061400-
Dawson GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Forsyth GA-
Pickens GA-
835 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON...NORTH
FULTON...NORTHERN COBB...CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN BARTOW...WESTERN
FORSYTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EST...

At 834 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Lake Arrowhead to Oak Grove to Lost Mountain
Park...and moving northeast at 70 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and very heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain will exasperate
           ongoing flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Canton, Cumming, Dawsonville, Sandy Springs, Roswell,
Alpharetta, Milton, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Holly Springs,
Emerson, Ball Ground, Nelson, White, Waleska, Free Home, Buffington
and Hickory Flat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3454 8419 3431 8406 3403 8421 3390 8472
      3395 8472 3395 8473 3404 8471 3429 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 239DEG 60KT 3428 8464 3408 8463 3394 8471

WIND...40MPH