River Flood Warning 86, NWS Atlanta, GA

126 
WGUS82 KFFC 070222
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson 
  Counties 

  Oconee River near Penfield affecting Clarke...Greene and Oconee 
  Counties 

  Oconee River near Oconee affecting Johnson...Washington and 
  Wilkinson Counties 

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Broad River near Carlton affecting Elbert...Madison and Oglethorpe
  Counties 

  Kettle Creek near Washington affecting Wilkes County 


GAC013-157-071623-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0080.000000T0000Z-200208T0222Z/
/ACDG1.1.ER.200206T2206Z.200207T0600Z.200207T2022Z.NO/
922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Middle Oconee River near Arcade.
* Until Friday evening.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 19 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.4 feet early Friday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* At 20 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand further into the 
  woodlands...fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the 
  gage at Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a 
  residential yard just downstream will be flooded with up to 4 feet 
  of water.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8377 3410 8375 3406 8355 3400 8347
      3395 8352 3402 8363             

$$

GAC105-195-221-071623-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-200208T0304Z/
/CARG1.1.ER.200206T2006Z.200207T0600Z.200207T2104Z.UU/
922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Broad River near Carlton.
* Until Friday evening.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 22.6 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24 feet by early Friday
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* At 24 feet, minor flooding expands further into the woodlands 
  and fields along the river. A sand dredge operation on the left 
  bank near the gage will be completely under water. Large portions 
  of Roy Wood Road and the Broad River Outpost for Canoes and Kayaks 
  location will be under several feet of water. Flooding expands up 
  the backyard of an assisted living home off of Roy Wood Road.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3419 8308 3407 8295 3401 8285 3396 8286
      3402 8300 3414 8312             

$$

GAC059-133-219-071623-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0082.200207T0213Z-200210T0045Z/
/PNFG1.1.ER.200207T0006Z.200208T1200Z.200209T1845Z.NO/
922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oconee River near Penfield.
* Until Sunday evening.
* At 09PM Thursday the stage was 13.7 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 17.5 feet by Saturday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday early 
  afternoon.
* At 17 feet, minor flooding continues to expand into fields,
  woodlands and pastures near the river. The water level is very 
  close to Ward Road on the right bank. Flood waters will be 
  approaching irrigation systems and they may need to be moved to
  higher ground.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8325 3364 8333 3383 8333 3384 8327


$$

GAC167-303-319-071623-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0083.200207T1600Z-000000T0000Z/
/OCNG1.1.ER.200207T1600Z.200209T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oconee River near Oconee.
* From Friday late morning until further notice.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 10.1 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by late Friday
  morning and continue to rise to near 20.4 feet by Sunday early 
  afternoon.
* At 19 feet, the water level begins to flood the dirt parking 
  lot area near the Old Balls Ferry Road boat ramp, just upstream
  and rightbank from the Georgia Highway 57 bridge. Minor flooding
  continues and spreads further into the woodlands near the river.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8303 3288 8298 3279 8292 3267 8289
      3265 8298 3278 8300             

$$

GAC317-071623-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/KETG1.1.ER.200206T2109Z.200207T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
922 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kettle Creek near Washington.
* Until further notice.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 16.1 feet, and falling.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* At 16 feet, minor flooding expands further into the woodlands,
  fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Stoney 
  Ridge Road. 
  

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8295 3374 8289 3366 8278 3364 8285


$$

207 
WGUS82 KFFC 070630
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Holly Creek near Chatsworth affecting Murray County

  Kettle Creek near Washington affecting Wilkes County

 
GAC213-070700-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-200207T0630Z/
/HOLG1.1.ER.200206T1813Z.200206T2315Z.200207T0556Z.UU/
130 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Holly Creek near Chatsworth.
* This takes effect immediately.
* At 1 AM Friday the stage was 10.0 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8472 3479 8469 3464 8480 3470 8492
      3472 8486 3479 8477             

$$

GAC317-070700-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-200207T0630Z/
/KETG1.1.ER.200206T2109Z.200207T0000Z.200207T0457Z.UU/
130 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Kettle Creek near Washington.
* This takes effect immediately.
* At 1 AM Friday the stage was 12.8 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3371 8295 3374 8289 3366 8278 3364 8285


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The line of showers and thunderstorms that have brought a round of
severe weather and torrential flooding rainfall. The severe threat
looks to exit the forecast area by 8 PM tonight with the
expiration of the ongoing Tornado Watch. However, ongoing flooding
issues may continue with heavy runoff and another half inch of
rain expected behind the main line of storms. A Flash Flood Watch
will continue through Friday morning with several reports of
severe flooding ongoing in north Georgia.

As heavy rain filters out and isolated light showers move into
the area behind them the colder air moving in behind the front
will lead to possible snow showers and flurries across north
Georgia Friday morning. Accumulations around an inch may be
possible on western slopes in the Georgia Blue Ridge mountains.
Further flurries may continue on Saturday morning as well with
another brief round of lighter rainfall.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Given ongoing severe weather today only tweeks were made to the
extended forecast. The previous discussion follows...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020/

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will cont to push
through the fcst area with a wide variety of svr wx and heavy rain
following. CIGS are very spotty at the moment, but expecting MVFR
to dominate through most of the TAF period with IFR possible
around the ATL sites between 22-06Z tonight. A mix of IFR/MVFR
VSBYS also likely with periods of heavy rain. Strong gusty SSW
winds ahead of the storms will transition to breezy west winds
tonight before strengthening again tomorrow morning with gusts up
to 25kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on winds.
Low to Medium confidence on CIGS.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  46  32  51 /  90  10  10  30
Atlanta         38  44  33  53 /  90  20  20  30
Blairsville     32  38  28  45 /  90  50  20  30
Cartersville    35  43  31  52 /  60  30  20  30
Columbus        40  49  36  60 /  90  20  20  20
Gainesville     38  43  32  48 /  90  20  20  30
Macon           42  50  34  58 / 100  10  10  20
Rome            36  43  32  52 /  40  30  20  30
Peachtree City  38  47  32  56 /  90  20  20  30
Vidalia         46  52  36  61 / 100   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...
Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...
Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...
Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Sumter...Taliaferro...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
123 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Tornado Watch In Effect For Portions of Central and Eastern
Georgia Southwest Portions of the Forecast Area extending
southeast of a line from Columbus to Peachtree City, to
Lawrenceville, to Danielsville, until 8 PM tonight...

A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes will continue to sweep through
portions of central and eastern Georgia. For this area, be
prepared for possible Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings,
and be ready to take appropriate actions if necessary.

In addition to the severe storm potential, a Flash Flood Watch is
in effect for the entire forecast area through 7 AM Friday
morning as torrential rainfall will allow an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain. Heavy rain will quickly elevate the flood
potential across the area, especially in the higher terrain of
north Georgia, urban areas, low-lying areas, and small creeks and
streams. Please do not attempt to drive through flooded roadways;
Turn Around, Don't Drown!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through Friday morning across
north and central Georgia. Flooding will continue well after the
rain ends in urban areas, low-lying areas, and small creeks and
streams.

Light rain and snow mix will be possible across far north Georgia
on Friday morning and Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
terrain. Little to no accumulations are anticipated at this time
for Friday but this could change with subsequent forecasts. A
dusting to less than a half an inch could be realized for the
Saturday system across the Northeast mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information today for possible
activation across portions of north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E EATONTON            33.33N  83.37W
02/06/2020                   PUTNAM             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER BETWEEN
            EATONTON AND LAKE OCONEE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000138

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW CONCORD            33.10N  84.45W
02/06/2020                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES NEAR CONCORD DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000139

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
351 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-071500-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Polk-
351 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

As much colder air rushes in across the area behind a strong
storm system, scattered rain showers may mix with or change to
snow showers before ending late tonight through early Friday
morning.

There is the chance to see some snow accumulations but mainly
confined to the highest elevations of the north Georgia mountains,
from near Amicalola Falls State Park up to the Georgia and North
Carolina state line near Hiawassee. In these areas, a dusting to
1/2 inch of snow is possible, with locally higher amounts around 1
inch over the highest ridgetops.

Elsewhere across far north Georgia, a few snow flurries or snow
showers may mix with light rain showers late tonight into early
Friday morning. No snow accumulations or impacts are expected as
morning low temperatures remain above freezing, in the mid to
upper 30s.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ074-076-085-086-097-098-062145-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-
Laurens GA-
358 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...EMANUEL...TREUTLEN...JOHNSON AND LAURENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EST...

At 357 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Louisville to near Harlow...and moving southeast
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Swainsboro, Soperton, Louisville, Wrightsville, East Dublin,
Wadley, Adrian, Dexter, Dudley, Cadwell, Harrison, Rentz, Bartow,
Summertown, Nunez, Tarrytown, Kite, Spann and Covena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3234 8239 3235 8241 3226 8295 3246 8316
      3317 8231 3314 8227 3305 8229 3293 8227
      3284 8232 3280 8221 3281 8215 3273 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 312DEG 17KT 3300 8233 3246 8291

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ096-097-105>109-062130-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
Pulaski GA-
400 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRISP...SOUTHEASTERN DOOLY...
WILCOX...SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN BLECKLEY...DODGE AND
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EST...

At 400 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Rowland to near Raines...and moving east at 55
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cordele, Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Abbeville, Chester,
Rochelle, Arabi, Cadwell, Pineview, Rhine, Chauncey, Pitts, Union,
Dubois, Plainfield, Empire, Cedar Grove, Roddy and Baileys Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8386 3184 8386
      3185 8394 3187 8393 3250 8321 3227 8287
      3199 8318 3185 8343 3185 8361 3180 8361
      3180 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 288DEG 47KT 3245 8315 3186 8382

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
432 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ096-097-106>109-062200-
Crisp GA-Wilcox GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
432 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRISP...WILCOX...WESTERN
LAURENS...BLECKLEY...NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EST...

At 431 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Rowland to Arabi...and moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cordele, Cochran, Eastman, Chester, Rochelle, Arabi, Cadwell,
Pineview, Pitts, Union, Dubois, Plainfield, Empire, Roddy, Baileys
Park, Rowland, Seville, Ocmulgee Banks, Finleyson and Pleasant View.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3203 8366
      3203 8361 3209 8361 3251 8322 3235 8300
      3185 8346 3185 8361 3180 8361 3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 247DEG 33KT 3244 8319 3185 8375