River Flood Warning 67, NWS Atlanta, GA

015 
WGUS82 KFFC 070041
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Nickajack Creek near Mableton affecting Cobb County

 
GAC067-070111-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-200207T0041Z/
/NICG1.1.ER.200206T1810Z.200206T2100Z.200206T2312Z.NO/
741 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Nickajack Creek near Mableton.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until Wednesday December 31.
* At 7 PM Thursday the stage was 9.5 feet, and falling.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* Between 8 and 10 feet, bankfull conditions occur along the creek 
  upstream and downstream from the gage at Veterans Memorial Highway. 
  

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8455 3385 8459 3389 8454 3384 8448 3381 8449


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
115 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...18Z Aviation Discussion and Forecast Update...

.UPDATE...

A Tornado Watch continues for the southeastern half of the
forecast area, extending southeast of a line from Columbus to
Peachtree City, to Lawrenceville, to Danielsville, until 8 PM
tonight as a line of severe thunderstorms sweeps through the area.
For this area, be prepared for possible Severe Thunderstorm and
Tornado Warnings, and be ready to take appropriate actions if
necessary.

A Flash Flood Watch will also continue through 7 AM Friday
morning for the entire forecast area with several Flash Flood and
River Flood Warnings ongoing for North Georgia for the next
several hours with multiple reports of swift water rescues
throughout the morning. Flooded roadways are proving to be very
dangerous and there are widespread road closures across North
Georgia. We'd like to remind all that when encountering flooded
roadways to play it safe; Turn Around, Don't Drown!

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms moving NE across
the region this morning. Main upper trough moving east through the
plains states this morning keeping the southeastern US in deep moist
southwesterly flow. This flow is bringing ample Gulf moisture and
rounds of heavy rainfall with increased thunderstorm chances mainly
Today. The main surface frontal boundary will push into NW GA over
the next few hours and continue to move southeast through tonight.
Strong to severe convection potential continues Today given ample
shear and some higher instability expected especially across central
portions of the state. Main threat continues to be damaging winds,
though with some decent HREF probabilities of sig tor params greater
than 3, there is the potential for some brief tornado spin ups this
afternoon. QPF showing highest values expected mainly across west
and central GA today with 2 to 3 more inches expected on top of the 1
to 2 inches that has already fallen. Have continued the Flash Flood
watch which includes all of north and central GA.

Other item to watch is the strong Cold air advection pushing in
behind this system tonight/Fri morning along with a slug of enhanced
moisture across N GA. Temps will dip down into the lower 30s and
with fairly steep cooling/lapse rates and decent saturation below
700 mb have continued with a rain snow mix mainly across N GA. Some
light accumulations cannot be ruled out especially in the higher
elevations. Temps Friday will rise into the 40s and 50s.

01

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/...

The first portion of the long term will be the rare dry period but
as has been the case, this will not last for long. A secondary
shortwave will drop through the midwest and eventually the
Mississippi Valley Sat morning with surface reflection passing
well north of the area. GFS continues to be most aggressive with
this feature and the associated moisture although the ECMWF has
trended slightly wetter as well. Still going to use a blend which
yields likely pops over the far NE zones through Sat afternoon.
Timing will be critical as we could see enough cold air lock in to
allow for a rain and snow mix over mountains primarily. ECMWF
indicates greater snow potential over a larger area than the GFS
but will lean toward the lower amounts which agrees with WPC. This
would yield a dusting to maybe two tenths of an inch over the
northeast mountains.

Another brief dry period for Sunday before next system moves in
quickly Monday into Tuesday and if you believe the ECMWF which
stalls the frontal boundary further north. Regardless, another
period of decent rainfall of over and inch. Not as impressive as
the current system but with ongoing flooding likely, this will
only exacerbate the problem. Although instability will be quite
minimal, did add a period of thunder for Tuesday afternoon as the
activity transitions into Central GA.

Depending on which long term solution verifies, we could see a
break on Wednesday but just as likely that front hangs around and
provides the focus for additional activity. Frontal boundary will
move through on Thu with good agreement this far out. An
additional inch of rain is likely with this system and possibly
quite a bit more in the far extended as models show front stalling
and additional waves impacting the area.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will cont to push
through the fcst area with a wide variety of svr wx and heavy rain
following. CIGS are very spotty at the moment, but expecting MVFR
to dominate through most of the TAF period with IFR possible
around the ATL sites between 22-06Z tonight. A mix of IFR/MVFR
VSBYS also likely with periods of heavy rain. Strong gusty SSW
winds ahead of the storms will transition to breezy west winds
tonight before strengthening again tomorrow morning with gusts up
to 25kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on winds.
Low to Medium confidence on CIGS.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  40  46  32 / 100  90  10   5
Atlanta         68  38  44  33 / 100  80  20   5
Blairsville     64  33  38  28 / 100  80  40   5
Cartersville    67  35  44  31 / 100  80  30   5
Columbus        70  40  49  36 / 100  80  10   5
Gainesville     67  38  43  32 / 100  90  20   5
Macon           71  42  50  34 / 100  90   5   5
Rome            67  36  44  31 / 100  70  20   5
Peachtree City  69  38  47  33 / 100  80  20   5
Vidalia         75  47  53  36 /  90 100   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 8 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Clarke...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...
Greene...Hancock...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Newton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...
Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...
Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...
Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...
Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...
Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1052 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1052 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Tornado Watches In Effect For Southwest Portions of the
Forecast Area and the Atlanta Metro Until 1PM And East Central
Portions of the Forecast Area Until 5PM...

A line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing severe
weather today including damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
will continue to sweep through portions of central and eastern
Georgia.

In addition to the severe storm potential, torrential
rainfall will allow an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain to fall
over areas already saturated from previous rains. With heavy rains
expected to continue, the Flash Flood Watch remains for north and
central Georgia until 7 AM Friday morning. Heavy rain will
quickly elevate the flood potential across the area, especially in
the higher terrain of north Georgia, urban areas, low-lying
areas, and small creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through Friday morning across
north and central Georgia. Flooding will continue well after the
rain ends in urban areas, low-lying areas, and small creeks and
streams.

Light rain and snow mix will be possible across far north Georgia
on Friday morning and Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
terrain. Little to no accumulations are anticipated at this time
for Friday but this could change with subsequent forecasts. A
dusting to less than a half an inch could be realized for the
Saturday system across the Northeast mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest information today for possible
activation across portions of north and central Georgia.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1211 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW LUMPKIN           34.35N  84.07W
02/06/2020                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE STRUCTURES ALONG PINEBRIDGE DRIVE IMPACTED BY
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000128

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W DOUGHERTY           34.38N  84.08W
02/06/2020                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING IMPACTING STRUCTURES ALONG THOMPSON RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000129

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1216 PM EST THU FEB 06 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 AM     FLOOD            DAWSONVILLE             34.42N  84.12W
02/06/2020                   DAWSON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED DUE TO SLOW DRAINAGE.
            ROADS/INTERSECTIONS INCLUDE: HIGHWAY 9S/SPORTING HILL
            DRIVE, HWY 36W/GOLD CREEK DRIVE, JACK HEARD RD,
            AMICAOLOA CHURCH RD, FLAT CREEK DR, HUGH STOWERS RD AT
            ETOWAH RIVER, HARRY SOSEBEE RD, KILOUGH CHURCH RD AND
            ODUM CHUMBLEY RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000130

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE FORT BENNING/LAWS 32.32N 84.97W
02/06/2020  M49 MPH          CHATTAHOOCHEE      GA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KLSF FT BENNING COLUM.

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE OAKWOOD           34.23N 83.87W
02/06/2020  M44 MPH          HALL               GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0640W 1.0 E OAKWOOD
            (WEATHERSTEM).

1008 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW HARTSFIELD-JACKSO 33.63N 84.45W
02/06/2020  M43 MPH          CLAYTON            GA   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KATL ATLANTA.

0953 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S CHAMBLEE            33.88N 84.30W
02/06/2020  M43 MPH          DEKALB             GA   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KPDK PEACHTREE DEKALB.

1135 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW BUTLER             32.57N 84.25W
02/06/2020  M41 MPH          TAYLOR             GA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K6A1 BUTLER.

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N DRUID HILLS         33.80N 84.32W
02/06/2020  M41 MPH          DEKALB             GA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0536W 0.6 N DRUID HILLS
            (WEATHERSTEM).

1212 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W COLUMBUS METROPOLIT 32.52N 84.95W
02/06/2020  M40 MPH          MUSCOGEE           GA   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCSG COLUMBUS.

1155 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S GRIFFIN             33.23N 84.27W
02/06/2020  M40 MPH          SPALDING           GA   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K6A2 GRIFFIN-SPALDING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1249 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ083-093>095-104-105-061815-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
1249 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SOUTHEASTERN PEACH...
WESTERN DOOLY...SUMTER...HOUSTON AND WESTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL
115 PM EST...

At 1249 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Marshallville to near Sumter...and moving northeast at
50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Perry, Oglethorpe, Warner Robins, Centerville, Unadilla,
Montezuma, Marshallville, Byromville, Pinehurst, Andersonville,
Lilly, Dooling, Robins Air Force Base, Sumter, Lamar, Hayneville,
Whitewater State Park, Meadowdale and Houston Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8434 3216 8421 3216 8418 3220 8418
      3246 8404 3271 8350 3234 8363 3208 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 237DEG 51KT 3244 8394 3197 8422

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ069>071-081-082-061830-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR...MONROE...
NORTHWESTERN BIBB...NORTHEASTERN UPSON AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EST...

At 1253 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Redbone Crossroads,
or near Thomaston...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Forsyth, Yatesville, Culloden, The Rock, Lake Tobesofkee,
Bolingbroke, Redbone Crossroads, Russellville, Brent, Musella,
Redbone, Logtown, Lizella and Plant Scherer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3298 8427 3310 8379 3309 8378 3280 8376
      3279 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 255DEG 45KT 3287 8425

WIND...50MPH