Alert archive / Tennessee / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 11

February 2, 201629 counties in Alabama; 30 counties in Kentucky; 36 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 2, 2016, 3:10 PM CST for 29 counties in Alabama; 30 counties in Kentucky; 36 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2016, 3:10 PM CST (21:10 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2016, 10:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 95 counties

Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Colbert County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Dallas County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Russell County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Moore County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 3:28 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXDickson, Houston, Montgomery32 min
Feb 2, 4:23 PM CSTTornado Warning EmergencyTornado observedBMXPickens, Sumter67 min
Feb 2, 5:02 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatBMXFayette, Lamar, Pickens, Tuscaloosa58 min
Feb 2, 5:22 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXLawrence, Wayne23 min
Feb 2, 5:47 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedBMXFayette28 min
Feb 2, 5:55 PM CSTTornado WarningBMXLamar, Pickens40 min
Feb 2, 7:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHUNLawrence33 min
Feb 2, 8:13 PM CSTTornado WarningBMXLamar, Marion12 min
Feb 2, 9:38 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningHUNFranklin, Lawrence, Morgan4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2016-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 346 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-287 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
485 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
346 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
387 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

620 
WWUS20 KWNS 022107
SEL1  
SPC WW 022107
ALZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-030400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALABAMA
  PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
  MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  AS
SUCH...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL
LIKEWISE INCREASE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...AND ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.


...GOSS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 12:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Butler, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia and 3 more55 min
Feb 2, 1:18 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more6 hr
Feb 2, 2:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 27 more95 min
Feb 2, 5:18 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe, Washington and 1 more117 min
Feb 2, 5:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Colbert, Cullman and 26 more119 min
Feb 2, 9:54 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman, McCracken96 min
Feb 2, 12:22 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 16 more9 hr
Feb 2, 10:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Attala, Benton, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw and 36 more2 hr
Feb 2, 1:43 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clay, Covington, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Leake and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2016Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2016Tornado Watches in Alabama, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.